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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 7 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, −1.23σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 7 times in 75 draws · average wait 11.0 draws · longest completed wait 15 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 20 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 20 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 20 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-24 | 12 | 4th | 811172025 |
| 2022-09-01 | 4 | 2nd | 1720212234 |
| 2022-08-18 | 7 | 2nd | 1220262735 |
| 2022-07-25 | 14 | 3rd | 6 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 20 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-06-06 | 14 | 4th | 2882035 |
| 2022-04-18 | 15 | 3rd | 1010202430 |
| 2022-02-24 | — | 3rd | 913202630 |