Number 10

In Oz Lotto under the 7/45 + 2/45 · Jan 2009 – May 2022 rules — 697 draws, 7 from 1–45 (an earlier era).

80times drawn · chance expected 108 −2.97σ

14draws waiting · a wait this long: 11% for any number

8.6average wait between appearances · chance says 6.4

53longest completed wait · 1% chance of one at least that long

10 looks unusual on its own — and unremarkable among 45 numbers

Drawn 80 times in 697 draws against 108.4 expected, −2.97σ. Testing all 45 numbers at once means about 0.5 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 2.2e-4 and this does not pass it. It has also come out as the bonus ball 30 times, counted separately.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 80 times in 697 draws · average wait 8.6 draws · longest completed wait 53 · waiting 14 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest19 · chance 18.4
2nd smallest32 · chance 33.1
3rd smallest24 · chance 21.4
4th smallest5 · chance 6.2
5th smallest0 · chance 0.8
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0
7th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 10.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

27 26 1 7 11 21

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-02-01	10	2nd	8 10 20 23 37 43 44
2021-11-23	6	3rd	4 7 10 17 19 26 38
2021-10-12	5	2nd	4 10 13 27 30 32

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 7/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2018-07-31	3	3rd	1 7 10 13 25 26 40
2018-07-10	1	3rd	1 3 10 13 37 40 44
2018-07-03	1	3rd	4 9 10 16 18 23 27
2018-06-26	1	1st	10 11 14 22 32 34 36
2018-06-19	53	1st	10 16 18 20 22 26 35
2017-06-13	1	4th	2 4 9 10 13 14 43
2017-06-06	12	1st	10 11 15 19 23 30 34
2017-03-14	23	3rd	2 6 10 14 25 28 31
2016-10-04	20	3rd	3 4 10 12 14 28 41
2016-05-17	17	2nd	5 10 18 21 24 42 44
2016-01-19	1	2nd	1 10 12 13 25 31 34
2016-01-12	3	2nd	9 10 17 24 34 35 43
2015-12-22	8	1st	10 20 26 27 29 34 44
2015-10-27	1	3rd	3 5 10 11 18 30 44
2015-10-20	3	2nd	9 10 11 21 35 43 45
2015-09-29	13	3rd	1 3 10 12 26 34 42
2015-06-30	3	2nd	2 10 11 13 22 29 33
2015-06-09	7	3rd	5 7 10 14 15 21 32
2015-04-21	2	3rd	2 8 10 25 28 33 37
2015-04-07	9	1st	10 11 14 22 26 36 42
2015-02-03	12	4th	2 5 7 10 11 12 36
2014-11-11	6	2nd	2 10 21 25 33 41 43
2014-09-30	9	1st	10 14 27 30 34 36 40
2014-07-29	2	2nd	1 10 15 30 31 38 43
2014-07-15	2	3rd	1 3 10 14 22 29 37
2014-07-01	9	2nd	1 10 11 15 19 20 44
2014-04-29	4	4th	1 4 7 10 12 25 35
2014-04-01	21	2nd	1 10 16 19 21 31 40
2013-11-05	3	3rd	3 6 10 17 18 37 45
2013-10-15	3	3rd	2 5 10 18 22 36 39
2013-09-24	13	1st	10 14 20 33 37 42 43
2013-06-25	15	3rd	4 7 10 16 17 20 41
2013-03-12	2	3rd	3 8 10 21 28 38 40
2013-02-26	24	3rd	7 8 10 12 18 23 34
2012-09-11	12	3rd	1 9 10 12 20 26 32
2012-06-19	1	4th	1 2 4 10 16 31 39
2012-06-12	4	3rd	7 8 10 26 33 42 45
2012-05-15	6	2nd	7 10 14 17 19 38 45
2012-04-03	7	2nd	7 10 19 21 27 36 44
2012-02-14	3	2nd	7 10 23 25 27 31 43
2012-01-24	9	1st	10 12 13 27 29 40 44
2011-11-22	5	2nd	5 10 11 16 21 25 37
2011-10-18	12	2nd	6 10 15 16 36 43 45
2011-07-26	10	1st	10 21 23 27 35 41 45
2011-05-17	2	1st	10 11 14 26 29 33 39
2011-05-03	6	1st	10 19 34 36 40 42 45
2011-03-22	19	1st	10 13 15 16 37 39 44
2010-11-09	21	2nd	4 10 25 27 35 36 39
2010-06-15	5	2nd	8 10 15 18 29 32 38
2010-05-11	18	2nd	7 10 13 15 18 27 45
2010-01-05	5	3rd	3 6 10 11 26 35 39
2009-12-01	7	3rd	2 8 10 18 24 27 28
2009-10-13	11	1st	10 14 26 27 30 39 44
2009-07-28	12	3rd	3 6 10 11 15 35 43
2009-05-05	17	2nd	6 10 12 20 24 31 42
2009-01-06	—	2nd	5 10 27 30 32 37 45