Number 4

In Oz Lotto under the 7/45 + 2/45 · Jan 2009 – May 2022 rules — 697 draws, 7 from 1–45 (an earlier era).

103times drawn · chance expected 108 −0.57σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

6.8average wait between appearances · chance says 6.4

31longest completed wait · 47% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 103 times in 697 draws against 108.4 expected, −0.57σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 36 times, counted separately.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 103 times in 697 draws · average wait 6.8 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest62 · chance 65.6
2nd smallest38 · chance 32.8
3rd smallest3 · chance 4.4
4th smallest0 · chance 0.2
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0
7th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 14.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

7 16 22 30 17 25

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-05-03	1	1st	4 8 15 17 21 29 44
2022-04-26	4	1st	4 5 17 22 30 34 45
2022-03-29	4	1st	4 7 14 15 17 23

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 7/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2019-01-22	4	1st	4 7 25 26 32 35 36
2018-12-25	1	1st	4 7 11 28 32 33 38
2018-12-18	3	1st	4 13 15 16 27 29 45
2018-11-27	7	1st	4 7 13 18 25 30 38
2018-10-09	4	1st	4 25 26 30 32 41 45
2018-09-11	3	2nd	2 4 6 23 30 32 36
2018-08-21	7	2nd	3 4 9 12 14 32 38
2018-07-03	10	1st	4 9 10 16 18 23 27
2018-04-24	5	1st	4 7 16 27 29 39 45
2018-03-20	9	1st	4 8 11 13 16 32 34
2018-01-16	5	1st	4 7 9 23 26 30 37
2017-12-12	1	2nd	3 4 6 7 31 35 43
2017-12-05	4	1st	4 9 22 26 28 34 45
2017-11-07	9	1st	4 12 13 26 30 37 45
2017-09-05	3	1st	4 8 16 27 28 35 45
2017-08-15	3	1st	4 8 13 17 25 33 43
2017-07-25	2	2nd	1 4 6 15 22 29 39
2017-07-11	4	1st	4 22 30 36 37 39 40
2017-06-13	2	2nd	2 4 9 10 13 14 43
2017-05-30	1	2nd	1 4 13 19 26 31 35
2017-05-23	11	2nd	2 4 12 17 20 22 38
2017-03-07	4	1st	4 6 17 18 21 33 37
2017-02-07	18	1st	4 8 20 29 32 37 40
2016-10-04	2	2nd	3 4 10 12 14 28 41
2016-09-20	8	1st	4 12 27 31 33 34 39
2016-07-26	1	2nd	1 4 11 22 30 31 38
2016-07-19	8	1st	4 7 22 32 34 41 45
2016-05-24	21	1st	4 5 11 22 25 32 38
2015-12-29	2	1st	4 9 16 28 35 37 43
2015-12-15	14	1st	4 6 8 20 33 37 44
2015-09-08	4	1st	4 9 13 21 24 37 38
2015-08-11	8	2nd	1 4 9 11 15 32 37
2015-06-16	4	1st	4 7 8 17 20 30 40
2015-05-19	7	2nd	2 4 6 14 16 25 27
2015-03-31	1	2nd	3 4 16 17 29 32 44
2015-03-24	1	1st	4 11 16 24 28 33 45
2015-03-17	3	1st	4 5 14 15 16 29 42
2015-02-24	1	2nd	3 4 6 18 21 23 31
2015-02-17	7	2nd	2 4 19 25 30 31 38
2014-12-30	2	1st	4 7 19 26 35 41 43
2014-12-16	16	1st	4 11 20 21 25 42 45
2014-08-26	14	3rd	2 3 4 12 17 26 32
2014-05-20	1	1st	4 5 7 16 26 31 39
2014-05-13	2	1st	4 6 14 20 23 26 35
2014-04-29	1	2nd	1 4 7 10 12 25 35
2014-04-22	5	1st	4 5 12 30 35 36 43
2014-03-18	4	2nd	2 4 19 24 30 33 38
2014-02-18	3	2nd	1 4 7 11 27 30 36
2014-01-28	4	1st	4 14 22 25 26 31 36
2013-12-31	1	1st	4 7 9 13 14 36 41
2013-12-24	26	1st	4 6 22 24 33 36 42
2013-06-25	10	1st	4 7 10 16 17 20 41
2013-04-16	24	1st	4 7 16 22 24 37 40
2012-10-30	2	1st	4 5 8 16 21 26 31
2012-10-16	1	1st	4 5 8 16 23 44 45
2012-10-09	8	2nd	1 4 12 15 22 33 43
2012-08-14	1	1st	4 7 14 18 19 28 42
2012-08-07	3	2nd	3 4 15 19 28 38 44
2012-07-17	1	2nd	3 4 16 17 20 32 34
2012-07-10	3	2nd	1 4 9 19 20 37 40
2012-06-19	8	3rd	1 2 4 10 16 31 39
2012-04-24	31	1st	4 6 11 16 19 27 45
2011-09-20	3	2nd	1 4 17 19 22 27 29
2011-08-30	4	1st	4 8 16 22 28 34 41
2011-08-02	7	2nd	2 4 20 25 27 29 42
2011-06-14	2	3rd	1 3 4 13 15 21 26
2011-05-31	19	1st	4 25 33 36 41 43 45
2011-01-18	2	2nd	2 4 14 19 21 36 38
2011-01-04	8	2nd	3 4 24 33 39 40 45
2010-11-09	4	1st	4 10 25 27 35 36 39
2010-10-12	7	2nd	1 4 7 22 37 38 40
2010-08-24	17	2nd	2 4 12 17 19 33 44
2010-04-27	23	2nd	3 4 6 12 18 22 42
2009-11-17	2	1st	4 6 25 27 31 33 34
2009-11-03	1	2nd	2 4 6 7 15 17 36
2009-10-27	14	1st	4 7 20 25 42 43 45
2009-07-21	17	2nd	1 4 7 12 16 34 44
2009-03-24	5	1st	4 16 17 27 33 35 37
2009-02-17	—	2nd	2 4 20 23 30 41 45