Number 40

In Oz Lotto under the 7/45 + 2/45 · Jan 2009 – May 2022 rules — 697 draws, 7 from 1–45 (an earlier era).

104times drawn · chance expected 108 −0.46σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 51% for any number

6.7average wait between appearances · chance says 6.4

42longest completed wait · 10% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 104 times in 697 draws against 108.4 expected, −0.46σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 45 times, counted separately.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 104 times in 697 draws · average wait 6.7 draws · longest completed wait 42 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.1
4th smallest1 · chance 1.3
5th smallest15 · chance 12.1
6th smallest34 · chance 42.4
7th smallest54 · chance 48.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 14.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

9 21 29 3 6 36

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-04-05	17	6th	3 5 30 34 37 40 45
2021-12-07	4	7th	12 17 22 28 33 36 40
2021-11-09	16	5th	6 11 17 36 40 44

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 7/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2018-07-10	8	6th	1 3 10 13 37 40 44
2018-05-15	5	6th	3 6 12 13 29 40 41
2018-04-10	8	7th	3 15 17 23 25 31 40
2018-02-13	1	6th	2 3 26 35 37 40 42
2018-02-06	1	5th	6 11 22 35 40 41 43
2018-01-30	3	6th	2 5 12 24 31 40 45
2018-01-09	11	5th	1 8 9 26 40 43 45
2017-10-24	1	6th	9 15 22 31 35 40 44
2017-10-17	8	6th	7 23 32 38 39 40 41
2017-08-22	2	5th	7 12 14 16 40 41 43
2017-08-08	4	5th	6 15 21 25 40 43 45
2017-07-11	2	7th	4 22 30 36 37 39 40
2017-06-27	20	6th	3 6 8 22 26 40 41
2017-02-07	42	7th	4 8 20 29 32 37 40
2016-04-19	10	6th	5 22 25 29 33 40 42
2016-02-09	9	7th	6 11 22 30 35 37 40
2015-12-08	5	7th	8 11 14 19 30 36 40
2015-11-03	13	7th	5 19 30 31 32 37 40
2015-08-04	7	5th	8 9 14 19 40 41 44
2015-06-16	3	7th	4 7 8 17 20 30 40
2015-05-26	15	5th	9 26 32 39 40 42 44
2015-02-10	2	5th	6 32 36 39 40 42 44
2015-01-27	2	7th	1 7 9 30 31 35 40
2015-01-13	1	6th	23 24 33 36 38 40 44
2015-01-06	10	7th	2 6 11 19 35 39 40
2014-10-28	4	7th	6 9 20 21 22 38 40
2014-09-30	4	7th	10 14 27 30 34 36 40
2014-09-02	10	6th	1 3 9 15 29 40 43
2014-06-24	3	6th	8 12 26 32 36 40 41
2014-06-03	1	7th	5 8 14 20 21 35 40
2014-05-27	8	7th	2 3 12 19 23 32 40
2014-04-01	1	7th	1 10 16 19 21 31 40
2014-03-25	10	6th	15 16 23 29 33 40 45
2014-01-14	6	5th	21 22 24 36 40 44 45
2013-12-03	1	7th	2 19 20 21 23 33 40
2013-11-26	11	7th	5 6 12 24 26 31 40
2013-09-10	7	7th	12 18 20 21 29 37 40
2013-07-23	5	6th	8 28 31 34 37 40 41
2013-06-18	9	7th	1 9 20 29 31 35 40
2013-04-16	2	7th	4 7 16 22 24 37 40
2013-04-02	2	5th	7 12 17 35 40 42 44
2013-03-19	1	7th	1 7 11 26 33 37 40
2013-03-12	9	7th	3 8 10 21 28 38 40
2013-01-08	15	7th	1 13 15 30 35 39 40
2012-09-25	9	5th	5 15 29 35 40 44 45
2012-07-24	2	6th	6 20 29 31 36 40 43
2012-07-10	12	7th	1 4 9 19 20 37 40
2012-04-17	4	7th	9 21 24 27 35 38 40
2012-03-20	8	7th	3 5 15 22 23 34 40
2012-01-24	5	6th	10 12 13 27 29 40 44
2011-12-20	12	7th	7 8 9 21 29 36 40
2011-09-27	3	7th	15 21 23 26 32 34 40
2011-09-06	9	6th	2 5 16 20 27 40 44
2011-07-05	6	7th	6 20 28 29 33 34 40
2011-05-24	3	7th	7 9 15 21 24 25 40
2011-05-03	3	5th	10 19 34 36 40 42 45
2011-04-12	1	6th	5 9 13 18 29 40 41
2011-04-05	13	4th	18 21 24 40 42 43 45
2011-01-04	4	6th	3 4 24 33 39 40 45
2010-12-07	6	7th	1 19 23 25 27 36 40
2010-10-26	2	6th	6 8 20 32 36 40 44
2010-10-12	2	7th	1 4 7 22 37 38 40
2010-09-28	3	7th	6 15 25 26 32 33 40
2010-09-07	1	6th	3 8 27 28 34 40 44
2010-08-31	4	7th	8 13 16 23 30 33 40
2010-08-03	1	6th	3 15 19 27 31 40 41
2010-07-27	3	7th	1 8 12 19 26 30 40
2010-07-06	4	6th	9 19 29 30 34 40 45
2010-06-08	1	6th	5 15 21 26 35 40 43
2010-06-01	9	7th	6 14 15 16 18 30 40
2010-03-30	9	7th	2 25 28 29 35 39 40
2010-01-26	1	6th	17 21 32 37 38 40 44
2010-01-19	1	7th	7 18 20 33 37 38 40
2010-01-12	22	7th	14 18 23 31 33 37 40
2009-08-11	6	5th	6 8 17 29 40 41 43
2009-06-30	1	7th	3 12 21 23 29 38 40
2009-06-23	2	7th	9 15 18 21 23 31 40
2009-06-09	4	6th	3 19 28 30 34 40 44
2009-05-12	17	7th	2 7 25 28 32 35 40
2009-01-13	—	5th	1 3 16 38 40 41 43