Number 10

In Lotto under the 6/40 · Apr 2010 – Aug 2020 rules — 1,077 draws, 6 from 1–40 (an earlier era).

171times drawn · chance expected 162 +0.81σ

3draws waiting · a wait this long: 72% for any number

6.3average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7

33longest completed wait · 61% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 171 times in 1,077 draws against 161.5 expected, +0.81σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 171 times in 1,077 draws · average wait 6.3 draws · longest completed wait 33 · waiting 3 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest44 · chance 42.3
2nd smallest78 · chance 73.3
3rd smallest32 · chance 43.4
4th smallest16 · chance 10.9
5th smallest1 · chance 1.1
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 21.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

13 26 5 9 14 39

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2020-07-29	4	2nd	5 10 13 33 35 38
2020-07-15	2	2nd	5 10 11 21 31 32
2020-07-08	8	2nd	3 10 18 22 25 29
2020-06-10	15

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.

2018-12-26	1	1st	10 11 17 27 36 37
2018-12-22	2	1st	10 15 17 25 35 36
2018-12-15	3	2nd	9 10 18 19 37 38
2018-12-05	1	2nd	3 10 19 29 38 39
2018-12-01	14	2nd	7 10 14 18 34 37
2018-10-13	6	2nd	5 10 30 31 36 40
2018-09-22	26	1st	10 12 17 20 28 37
2018-06-23	3	2nd	9 10 11 28 29 36
2018-06-13	1	2nd	1 10 12 27 30 39
2018-06-09	3	1st	10 14 19 21 23 26
2018-05-30	11	1st	10 14 17 23 29 39
2018-04-21	2	2nd	4 10 11 16 18 26
2018-04-14	4	2nd	9 10 12 28 31 37
2018-03-31	6	3rd	7 9 10 20 22 39
2018-03-10	10	3rd	4 8 10 11 14 40
2018-02-03	16	3rd	8 9 10 12 32 38
2017-12-09	1	3rd	7 8 10 28 36 39
2017-12-06	7	2nd	1 10 21 25 27 33
2017-11-11	8	3rd	1 7 10 13 14 30
2017-10-14	6	3rd	5 6 10 33 34 35
2017-09-23	1	2nd	3 10 13 27 30 32
2017-09-20	15	2nd	9 10 12 22 26 36
2017-07-29	1	2nd	1 10 14 22 28 35
2017-07-26	11	1st	10 15 18 24 31 34
2017-06-17	8	2nd	1 10 26 32 37 38
2017-05-20	4	1st	10 16 18 20 28 32
2017-05-06	7	2nd	9 10 13 30 37 39
2017-04-12	4	4th	1 2 9 10 29 37
2017-03-29	3	2nd	2 10 17 18 19 29
2017-03-18	8	4th	3 4 9 10 24 27
2017-02-18	1	3rd	2 8 10 15 22 28
2017-02-15	1	1st	10 11 20 21 22 32
2017-02-11	21	3rd	5 6 10 21 35 37
2016-11-30	6	1st	10 13 18 25 27 34
2016-11-09	7	1st	10 12 16 17 28 29
2016-10-15	7	1st	10 19 20 26 31 32
2016-09-21	7	2nd	5 10 11 26 30 39
2016-08-27	3	2nd	5 10 16 31 33 36
2016-08-17	3	3rd	6 9 10 14 21 35
2016-08-06	6	3rd	5 7 10 13 26 30
2016-07-16	2	2nd	7 10 13 25 33 36
2016-07-09	2	2nd	4 10 19 24 29 32
2016-07-02	2	3rd	3 5 10 13 16 38
2016-06-25	4	2nd	4 10 14 15 25 39
2016-06-11	5	2nd	3 10 11 13 17 26
2016-05-25	4	2nd	4 10 24 26 33 37
2016-05-11	5	1st	10 15 22 29 32 33
2016-04-23	12	2nd	6 10 15 25 39 40
2016-03-12	2	3rd	1 6 10 19 24 26
2016-03-05	1	3rd	4 7 10 16 22 33
2016-03-02	8	2nd	4 10 15 21 24 36
2016-02-03	3	4th	4 5 6 10 17 35
2016-01-23	3	1st	10 25 28 30 33 34
2016-01-13	13	1st	10 14 19 24 33 35
2015-11-28	3	1st	10 11 15 22 23 39
2015-11-18	17	2nd	2 10 13 19 20 25
2015-09-19	10	1st	10 18 20 23 25 40
2015-08-15	1	4th	1 4 7 10 18 20
2015-08-12	7	2nd	1 10 11 22 26 36
2015-07-18	3	2nd	7 10 15 22 36 39
2015-07-08	5	1st	10 11 14 20 24 28
2015-06-20	14	3rd	1 4 10 13 28 33
2015-05-02	13	2nd	6 10 21 30 32 40
2015-03-18	4	1st	10 14 21 25 30 31
2015-03-04	2	2nd	9 10 23 31 32 35
2015-02-25	15	4th	5 8 9 10 23 28
2015-01-03	10	1st	10 11 13 14 22 24
2014-11-29	10	1st	10 13 19 25 32 40
2014-10-25	2	2nd	4 10 23 25 35 38
2014-10-18	3	2nd	6 10 12 22 31 33
2014-10-08	8	2nd	9 10 14 19 26 28
2014-09-10	7	1st	10 19 22 23 27 28
2014-08-16	4	2nd	3 10 14 24 28 33
2014-08-02	4	4th	3 5 7 10 14 38
2014-07-19	3	2nd	6 10 20 27 38 39
2014-07-09	4	4th	1 5 8 10 12 15
2014-06-25	10	1st	10 15 17 24 25 31
2014-05-21	2	4th	5 6 7 10 11 30
2014-05-14	1	2nd	5 10 20 25 30 35
2014-05-10	4	2nd	3 10 14 21 26 40
2014-04-26	10	2nd	5 10 14 22 25 28
2014-03-22	8	1st	10 13 23 35 37 39
2014-02-22	2	2nd	7 10 17 26 32 33
2014-02-15	11	2nd	3 10 24 26 32 39
2014-01-08	1	3rd	1 6 10 22 34 36
2014-01-04	5	3rd	3 9 10 14 37 38
2013-12-14	6	3rd	2 7 10 17 24 31
2013-11-23	5	2nd	7 10 26 35 37 40
2013-11-06	1	2nd	6 10 11 21 30 32
2013-11-02	28	2nd	5 10 13 18 29 31
2013-07-27	4	1st	10 11 24 33 35 37
2013-07-13	20	4th	4 7 9 10 17 33
2013-05-04	10	3rd	5 9 10 25 26 28
2013-03-30	6	3rd	8 9 10 30 34 38
2013-03-09	1	4th	2 4 6 10 19 25
2013-03-06	4	1st	10 12 18 21 38 39
2013-02-20	6	1st	10 14 15 16 21 36
2013-01-30	12	3rd	6 8 10 11 32 35
2012-12-19	16	4th	1 7 9 10 15 32
2012-10-24	3	2nd	2 10 16 24 26 30
2012-10-13	6	2nd	3 10 12 25 34 39
2012-09-22	5	4th	3 5 7 10 12 20
2012-09-05	5	2nd	4 10 11 14 21 31
2012-08-18	3	2nd	1 10 26 27 34 37
2012-08-08	6	2nd	6 10 13 23 29 36
2012-07-18	3	3rd	3 8 10 13 33 39
2012-07-07	4	4th	3 6 9 10 14 25
2012-06-23	5	2nd	7 10 17 24 33 36
2012-06-06	5	4th	1 5 6 10 18 26
2012-05-19	1	2nd	1 10 18 23 30 38
2012-05-16	11	2nd	3 10 11 20 30 37
2012-04-07	2	2nd	7 10 25 26 29 38
2012-03-31	8	1st	10 11 14 21 35 40
2012-03-03	1	3rd	4 8 10 13 25 35
2012-02-29	3	2nd	5 10 24 33 36 37
2012-02-18	3	1st	10 20 24 26 30 35
2012-02-08	4	1st	10 21 22 28 35 36
2012-01-25	3	2nd	9 10 13 31 37 39
2012-01-14	1	1st	10 15 22 24 26 38
2012-01-11	20	1st	10 13 16 26 27 29
2011-11-02	5	2nd	5 10 17 19 21 37
2011-10-15	3	1st	10 11 12 20 34 38
2011-10-05	7	2nd	1 10 12 13 22 40
2011-09-10	3	1st	10 13 20 25 32 37
2011-08-31	10	2nd	9 10 11 18 36 39
2011-07-27	1	1st	10 14 15 22 24 28
2011-07-23	7	2nd	4 10 13 16 22 37
2011-06-29	1	1st	10 12 16 18 34 35
2011-06-25	33	3rd	5 9 10 28 36 38
2011-03-02	2	3rd	5 8 10 24 28 35
2011-02-23	8	5th	2 5 6 7 10 24
2011-01-26	4	2nd	5 10 11 13 38 40
2011-01-12	3	1st	10 13 15 28 32 38
2011-01-01	6	2nd	9 10 15 22 24 40
2010-12-08	3	2nd	5 10 12 14 17 36
2010-11-27	9	3rd	2 3 10 19 32 38
2010-10-27	2	2nd	1 10 13 21 22 39
2010-10-20	3	2nd	6 10 22 26 28 32
2010-10-09	3	2nd	9 10 13 17 22 39
2010-09-29	1	1st	10 14 21 25 33 36
2010-09-25	1	2nd	6 10 17 23 29 30
2010-09-22	12	3rd	2 4 10 12 13 36
2010-08-11	3	1st	10 14 22 31 34 37
2010-07-31	15	3rd	2 9 10 23 25 35
2010-06-09	6	2nd	3 10 14 19 21 34
2010-05-19	5	3rd	4 8 10 26 28 29
2010-05-01	—	3rd	1 3 10 30 34 38