Number 15

In Lotto under the 6/40 · Apr 2010 – Aug 2020 rules — 1,077 draws, 6 from 1–40 (an earlier era).

160times drawn · chance expected 162 −0.13σ

11draws waiting · a wait this long: 20% for any number

6.6average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7

39longest completed wait · 28% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 160 times in 1,077 draws against 161.5 expected, −0.13σ. Each draw is independent: after 11 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 160 times in 1,077 draws · average wait 6.6 draws · longest completed wait 39 · waiting 11 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest13 · chance 14.8
2nd smallest56 · chance 49.2
3rd smallest56 · chance 58.2
4th smallest27 · chance 30.3
5th smallest6 · chance 7.0
6th smallest2 · chance 0.6

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 20.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

8 32 16 5 19 22

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2020-07-01	5	1st	15 20 21 28 35 36
2020-06-13	7	3rd	8 12 15 20 26 40
2020-05-20	2	3rd	7 8 15 20 25 27
2020-05-13	3

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.

2018-12-08	11	1st	15 16 21 33 34 35
2018-10-31	2	3rd	2 11 15 16 33 35
2018-10-24	10	6th	2 5 6 8 13 15
2018-09-19	5	1st	15 24 25 26 30 36
2018-09-01	2	4th	3 7 9 15 22 34
2018-08-25	4	3rd	8 9 15 19 26 32
2018-08-11	12	2nd	6 15 16 25 26 34
2018-06-30	1	3rd	3 11 15 19 27 39
2018-06-27	2	4th	1 3 6 15 23 31
2018-06-20	24	4th	3 4 8 15 27 40
2018-03-28	7	2nd	5 15 20 22 31 39
2018-03-03	1	3rd	11 13 15 21 33 40
2018-02-28	3	5th	4 5 8 12 15 16
2018-02-17	6	2nd	6 15 21 28 29 39
2018-01-27	11	5th	1 2 4 6 15 33
2017-12-20	6	1st	15 26 31 32 34 35
2017-11-29	3	3rd	5 9 15 18 24 39
2017-11-18	7	3rd	2 8 15 23 32 37
2017-10-25	2	2nd	2 15 25 27 32 35
2017-10-18	5	2nd	9 15 16 26 29 31
2017-09-30	15	3rd	3 8 15 17 18 19
2017-08-09	4	3rd	4 11 15 30 39 40
2017-07-26	14	2nd	10 15 18 24 31 34
2017-06-07	11	4th	1 9 13 15 20 21
2017-04-29	8	2nd	6 15 16 20 23 39
2017-04-01	9	2nd	3 15 17 22 32 37
2017-03-01	3	4th	2 4 11 15 20 32
2017-02-18	3	4th	2 8 10 15 22 28
2017-02-08	4	3rd	1 8 15 23 31 33
2017-01-25	1	4th	1 2 5 15 21 26
2017-01-21	1	3rd	9 14 15 20 31 38
2017-01-18	10	3rd	3 11 15 33 39 40
2016-12-14	8	2nd	5 15 17 20 38 39
2016-11-16	1	2nd	2 15 19 22 26 29
2016-11-12	39	2nd	6 15 19 24 26 37
2016-06-29	1	2nd	12 15 18 19 20 26
2016-06-25	6	4th	4 10 14 15 25 39
2016-06-04	6	2nd	11 15 21 24 28 29
2016-05-14	1	2nd	13 15 16 17 22 23
2016-05-11	5	2nd	10 15 22 29 32 33
2016-04-23	6	3rd	6 10 15 25 39 40
2016-04-02	7	2nd	8 15 24 27 28 31
2016-03-09	2	1st	15 18 33 37 38 40
2016-03-02	24	3rd	4 10 15 21 24 36
2015-12-09	3	2nd	1 15 19 28 29 31
2015-11-28	1	3rd	10 11 15 22 23 39
2015-11-25	10	2nd	12 15 27 31 32 33
2015-10-21	2	4th	5 6 8 15 18 25
2015-10-14	2	2nd	12 15 22 28 35 38
2015-10-07	8	2nd	11 15 16 19 35 38
2015-09-09	1	2nd	9 15 25 32 33 34
2015-09-05	14	3rd	11 12 15 22 32 39
2015-07-18	9	3rd	7 10 15 22 36 39
2015-06-17	3	5th	7 9 12 14 15 39
2015-06-06	13	2nd	6 15 23 27 36 39
2015-04-22	5	4th	3 5 8 15 24 35
2015-04-04	1	3rd	9 11 15 28 33 35
2015-04-01	6	2nd	14 15 20 28 38 39
2015-03-11	5	1st	15 16 18 29 36 40
2015-02-21	17	2nd	2 15 17 21 22 25
2014-12-24	2	4th	7 8 14 15 23 25
2014-12-17	10	3rd	3 8 15 18 20 22
2014-11-12	1	4th	3 6 9 15 16 31
2014-11-08	1	2nd	2 15 18 20 21 33
2014-11-05	10	4th	4 5 9 15 17 25
2014-10-01	4	4th	9 12 14 15 18 40
2014-09-17	14	2nd	2 15 19 21 23 34
2014-07-30	6	1st	15 19 28 31 32 35
2014-07-09	4	6th	1 5 8 10 12 15
2014-06-25	8	2nd	10 15 17 24 25 31
2014-05-28	1	2nd	8 15 16 26 27 32
2014-05-24	5	4th	2 13 14 15 27 31
2014-05-07	10	3rd	4 6 15 20 21 34
2014-04-02	4	3rd	1 4 15 21 30 37
2014-03-19	27	3rd	3 5 15 16 24 32
2013-12-11	7	3rd	1 7 15 23 35 36
2013-11-16	9	3rd	6 11 15 16 38 39
2013-10-16	3	4th	2 3 9 15 28 40
2013-10-05	11	2nd	3 15 17 29 38 39
2013-08-28	1	3rd	5 11 15 22 30 37
2013-08-24	7	3rd	3 14 15 22 23 34
2013-07-31	4	2nd	1 15 19 23 25 29
2013-07-17	8	3rd	6 13 15 19 20 28
2013-06-19	1	4th	1 6 8 15 16 30
2013-06-15	7	4th	5 11 12 15 32 33
2013-05-22	2	2nd	12 15 24 28 35 36
2013-05-15	4	3rd	6 8 15 17 18 38
2013-05-01	1	1st	15 23 29 30 31 40
2013-04-27	1	3rd	8 9 15 23 28 36
2013-04-24	18	2nd	14 15 22 26 31 38
2013-02-20	3	3rd	10 14 15 16 21 36
2013-02-09	8	2nd	7 15 16 25 29 34
2013-01-12	6	3rd	11 12 15 19 24 25
2012-12-22	1	5th	3 6 7 14 15 36
2012-12-19	5	5th	1 7 9 10 15 32
2012-12-01	2	3rd	5 13 15 29 33 35
2012-11-24	1	3rd	7 12 15 18 23 26
2012-11-21	2	2nd	1 15 24 28 32 34
2012-11-14	5	4th	3 5 7 15 19 34
2012-10-27	13	4th	1 5 12 15 26 37
2012-09-12	8	3rd	5 14 15 17 24 26
2012-08-15	19	2nd	7 15 16 18 25 38
2012-06-09	22	3rd	2 13 15 29 32 33
2012-03-24	1	2nd	7 15 16 17 19 28
2012-03-21	1	3rd	1 5 15 25 26 33
2012-03-17	1	2nd	8 15 16 24 27 32
2012-03-14	11	2nd	9 15 20 23 24 32
2012-02-04	6	2nd	6 15 17 19 21 36
2012-01-14	2	2nd	10 15 22 24 26 38
2012-01-07	3	2nd	13 15 26 27 28 36
2011-12-28	25	3rd	5 13 15 29 30 36
2011-10-01	12	2nd	3 15 26 27 32 35
2011-08-20	1	3rd	6 12 15 20 26 35
2011-08-17	3	5th	1 4 6 14 15 17
2011-08-06	1	2nd	1 15 17 27 34 35
2011-08-03	2	3rd	5 12 15 19 20 23
2011-07-27	18	3rd	10 14 15 22 24 28
2011-05-25	5	3rd	8 12 15 27 28 36
2011-05-07	9	3rd	2 6 15 16 24 28
2011-04-06	7	4th	2 3 12 15 20 21
2011-03-12	4	3rd	2 9 15 19 23 38
2011-02-26	5	4th	5 8 9 15 29 39
2011-02-09	2	4th	1 4 7 15 16 26
2011-02-02	4	2nd	5 15 19 20 28 29
2011-01-19	2	4th	1 8 13 15 21 32
2011-01-12	3	3rd	10 13 15 28 32 38
2011-01-01	10	3rd	9 10 15 22 24 40
2010-11-24	12	3rd	8 13 15 18 23 36
2010-10-13	2	2nd	12 15 30 32 33 39
2010-10-06	1	3rd	2 13 15 27 30 36
2010-10-02	5	2nd	7 15 18 25 33 40
2010-09-15	16	3rd	1 4 15 19 28 39
2010-07-21	8	4th	1 4 11 15 26 30
2010-06-23	9	2nd	14 15 19 25 31 39
2010-05-22	2	2nd	9 15 22 23 34 38
2010-05-15	—	3rd	8 14 15 19 37 40