Number 4

In Lotto under the 6/40 · Apr 2010 – Aug 2020 rules — 1,077 draws, 6 from 1–40 (an earlier era).

138times drawn · chance expected 162 −2.01σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 52% for any number

7.8average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7

42longest completed wait · 16% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 138 times in 1,077 draws against 161.5 expected, −2.01σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 138 times in 1,077 draws · average wait 7.8 draws · longest completed wait 42 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest83 · chance 90.4
2nd smallest45 · chance 42.4
3rd smallest10 · chance 5.1
4th smallest0 · chance 0.2
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 17.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

13 1 2 10 19 24

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2020-07-22	12	2nd	2 4 9 18 33 36
2020-06-10	1	1st	4 10 16 27 36 39
2020-06-06	15	3rd	2 3 4 7 11 36
2020-04-15	3

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.

2018-05-16	5	2nd	3 4 6 11 19 32
2018-04-28	1	2nd	1 4 9 16 20 35
2018-04-25	1	1st	4 6 20 26 32 37
2018-04-21	3	1st	4 10 11 16 18 26
2018-04-11	9	1st	4 17 20 23 29 31
2018-03-10	3	1st	4 8 10 11 14 40
2018-02-28	5	1st	4 5 8 12 15 16
2018-02-10	4	1st	4 5 21 22 32 36
2018-01-27	1	3rd	1 2 4 6 15 33
2018-01-24	8	2nd	2 4 25 32 35 36
2017-12-27	4	1st	4 7 16 25 37 38
2017-12-13	3	1st	4 12 19 22 34 38
2017-12-02	9	1st	4 24 25 30 33 34
2017-11-01	17	2nd	1 4 18 20 28 39
2017-09-02	5	2nd	2 4 5 12 17 34
2017-08-16	1	2nd	3 4 9 18 23 40
2017-08-12	1	2nd	2 4 5 9 11 27
2017-08-09	6	1st	4 11 15 30 39 40
2017-07-19	13	3rd	1 3 4 18 23 26
2017-06-03	22	1st	4 5 19 20 21 22
2017-03-18	5	2nd	3 4 9 10 24 27
2017-03-01	8	2nd	2 4 11 15 20 32
2017-02-01	16	1st	4 5 16 18 24 32
2016-12-07	3	2nd	2 4 12 28 34 37
2016-11-26	15	2nd	2 4 13 29 37 40
2016-10-05	2	1st	4 11 14 30 32 38
2016-09-28	3	1st	4 13 21 31 38 40
2016-09-17	1	1st	4 7 9 35 36 39
2016-09-14	3	1st	4 11 18 21 29 30
2016-09-03	11	2nd	2 4 11 36 37 39
2016-07-27	1	1st	4 20 21 22 25 28
2016-07-23	3	1st	4 7 8 13 19 29
2016-07-13	1	2nd	2 4 5 21 37 39
2016-07-09	4	1st	4 10 19 24 29 32
2016-06-25	1	1st	4 10 14 15 25 39
2016-06-22	1	2nd	3 4 13 19 26 29
2016-06-18	6	1st	4 9 17 24 33 38
2016-05-28	1	1st	4 13 19 27 33 40
2016-05-25	11	1st	4 10 24 26 33 37
2016-04-16	1	2nd	3 4 9 22 23 26
2016-04-13	11	1st	4 13 19 20 37 39
2016-03-05	1	1st	4 7 10 16 22 33
2016-03-02	2	1st	4 10 15 21 24 36
2016-02-24	6	3rd	2 3 4 12 18 20
2016-02-03	23	1st	4 5 6 10 17 35
2015-11-14	13	2nd	2 4 7 21 23 30
2015-09-30	13	2nd	2 4 19 22 25 31
2015-08-15	2	2nd	1 4 7 10 18 20
2015-08-08	1	1st	4 22 24 30 34 37
2015-08-05	10	1st	4 7 17 22 29 34
2015-07-01	3	1st	4 5 11 13 17 19
2015-06-20	7	2nd	1 4 10 13 28 33
2015-05-27	42	1st	4 23 24 28 31 32
2014-12-31	7	1st	4 23 28 29 35 39
2014-12-06	9	2nd	3 4 13 28 29 37
2014-11-05	3	1st	4 5 9 15 17 25
2014-10-25	10	1st	4 10 23 25 35 38
2014-09-20	4	1st	4 9 19 33 35 40
2014-09-06	1	1st	4 13 16 17 33 39
2014-09-03	2	1st	4 9 11 20 23 38
2014-08-27	1	1st	4 13 17 19 20 31
2014-08-23	9	1st	4 6 16 20 26 30
2014-07-23	7	1st	4 9 28 29 38 40
2014-06-28	2	2nd	2 4 19 25 28 30
2014-06-21	1	2nd	2 4 8 12 23 34
2014-06-18	1	1st	4 5 9 31 32 37
2014-06-14	1	1st	4 8 26 29 31 38
2014-06-11	3	1st	4 23 24 32 34 38
2014-05-31	7	1st	4 18 21 23 28 31
2014-05-07	2	1st	4 6 15 20 21 34
2014-04-30	2	2nd	1 4 9 17 34 40
2014-04-23	6	1st	4 11 23 24 31 32
2014-04-02	7	2nd	1 4 15 21 30 37
2014-03-08	26	2nd	2 4 23 24 34 38
2013-12-04	6	3rd	1 2 4 22 28 37
2013-11-13	17	1st	4 7 12 22 23 33
2013-09-14	7	1st	4 14 28 33 37 38
2013-08-21	4	1st	4 20 23 29 31 36
2013-08-07	7	2nd	1 4 16 27 31 39
2013-07-13	3	1st	4 7 9 10 17 33
2013-07-03	23	3rd	1 2 4 12 21 25
2013-04-13	10	1st	4 9 16 28 35 36
2013-03-09	25	2nd	2 4 6 10 19 25
2012-12-12	22	1st	4 5 21 31 32 39
2012-09-26	5	1st	4 13 16 29 38 39
2012-09-08	1	1st	4 13 24 25 28 36
2012-09-05	34	1st	4 10 11 14 21 31
2012-05-09	3	1st	4 8 12 23 24 31
2012-04-28	5	2nd	1 4 25 27 33 35
2012-04-11	11	3rd	2 3 4 5 9 24
2012-03-03	5	1st	4 8 10 13 25 35
2012-02-15	12	1st	4 8 17 28 30 35
2012-01-04	5	2nd	2 4 8 20 31 40
2011-12-17	2	2nd	3 4 16 24 30 36
2011-12-10	6	1st	4 19 23 32 34 40
2011-11-19	19	1st	4 6 7 11 35 38
2011-09-14	8	2nd	3 4 8 24 31 39
2011-08-17	7	2nd	1 4 6 14 15 17
2011-07-23	12	1st	4 10 13 16 22 37
2011-06-11	4	2nd	1 4 17 18 27 35
2011-05-28	4	1st	4 5 20 22 32 38
2011-05-14	4	3rd	1 3 4 11 30 36
2011-04-30	9	1st	4 5 14 28 29 32
2011-03-30	14	2nd	3 4 13 18 22 28
2011-02-09	5	2nd	1 4 7 15 16 26
2011-01-22	11	2nd	1 4 13 22 32 38
2010-12-11	9	1st	4 6 7 13 14 31
2010-11-10	14	1st	4 7 14 16 33 35
2010-09-22	2	2nd	2 4 10 12 13 36
2010-09-15	16	2nd	1 4 15 19 28 39
2010-07-21	18	2nd	1 4 11 15 26 30
2010-05-19	3	1st	4 8 10 26 28 29
2010-05-08	3	1st	4 19 23 30 33 34
2010-04-28	—	3rd	1 3 4 8 24 26