Number 23

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

11times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.50σ

6draws waiting · a wait this long: 52% for any number

9.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

29longest completed wait · 23% chance of one at least that long

23 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 11 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −0.50σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 23, draw by draw

Drawn 11 times in 104 draws · average wait 9.1 draws · longest completed wait 29 · waiting 6 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 23 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.4
2nd smallest2 · chance 2.2
3rd smallest1 · chance 4.3
4th smallest7 · chance 3.3
5th smallest1 · chance 0.9

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

22 11 2 21 33 9

Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 13 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 23 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 23 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-04-01	6	4th	1 7 22 23 34
2023-03-11	4	2nd	22 23 28 30 40
2023-02-25	10	4th	2 6 11 23 26
2023-01-21	29	4th	2

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 23 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.