Number 8

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

12times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.20σ

17draws waiting · a wait this long: 12% for any number

7.0average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

15longest completed wait · 86% chance of one at least that long

8 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 12 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 17 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 8, draw by draw

Drawn 12 times in 104 draws · average wait 7.0 draws · longest completed wait 15 · waiting 17 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 8 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest4 · chance 5.4
2nd smallest7 · chance 5.0
3rd smallest1 · chance 1.5
4th smallest0 · chance 0.2
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

12 14 1 2 7 16

Never drawn alongside 12 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 8 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Culturally lucky numbers 3, 8, 9 ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 8 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-02-22	4	3rd	2 6 8 16 40
2023-02-08	13	2nd	2 8 12 22 38
2022-12-24	2	1st	8 14 15 19 37
2022-12-17	2	2nd	7

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 8 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.