Number 4

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

10times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.80σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 59% for any number

9.3average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

28longest completed wait · 24% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 10 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −0.80σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 10 times in 104 draws · average wait 9.3 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest6 · chance 7.2
2nd smallest3 · chance 2.6
3rd smallest1 · chance 0.2
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

38 1 3 14 20 25

Never drawn alongside 11 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-04-05	14	1st	4 10 26 28 38
2023-02-15	7	1st	4 13 14 15 25
2023-01-21	1	2nd	2 4 14 23 31
2023-01-18	17	1st	4

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.