Number 11

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

13times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.10σ

13draws waiting · a wait this long: 21% for any number

7.3average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

36longest completed wait · 12% chance of one at least that long

11 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 13 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, +0.10σ. Each draw is independent: after 13 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 11, draw by draw

Drawn 13 times in 104 draws · average wait 7.3 draws · longest completed wait 36 · waiting 13 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 11 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest6 · chance 3.9
2nd smallest6 · chance 5.8
3rd smallest1 · chance 2.8
4th smallest0 · chance 0.5
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

23 31 2 26 39 9

Never drawn alongside 11 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 11 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 11 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-03-08	1	2nd	1 11 28 31 38
2023-03-04	2	1st	11 34 36 39 41
2023-02-25	8	3rd	2 6 11 23 26
2023-01-28	36	2nd	2

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 11 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.