In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).
19times drawn · chance expected 13 +1.89σ
6draws waiting · a wait this long: 52% for any number
5.3average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
21longest completed wait · 75% chance of one at least that long
22 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 19 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, +1.89σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
22
Number 22, draw by draw
Drawn 19 times in 104 draws · average wait 5.3 draws · longest completed wait 21 · waiting 6 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 22 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 7 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 6 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 22 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 22 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.