Number 6

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

12times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.20σ

16draws waiting · a wait this long: 14% for any number

5.6average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

18longest completed wait · 72% chance of one at least that long

6 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 12 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 16 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 6, draw by draw

Drawn 12 times in 104 draws · average wait 5.6 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 16 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 6 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest7 · chance 6.9
2nd smallest5 · chance 4.3
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.8
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

16 26 40 2 13 20

Never drawn alongside 16 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 6 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 6 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-02-25	1	2nd	2 6 11 23 26
2023-02-22	1	2nd	2 6 8 16 40
2023-02-18	4	1st	6 24 27 36 40
2023-02-04	13	2nd	2

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 6 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.