Number 14

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

16times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.99σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 88% for any number

6.5average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

18longest completed wait · 82% chance of one at least that long

14 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 16 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, +0.99σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 14, draw by draw

Drawn 16 times in 104 draws · average wait 6.5 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 14 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest2 · chance 3.1
2nd smallest7 · chance 6.7
3rd smallest5 · chance 4.8
4th smallest2 · chance 1.4
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

8 9 1 18 22 27

Never drawn alongside 7 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 8 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 14 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 14 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-04-15	8	2nd	3 14 16 18 36
2023-03-18	1	2nd	2 14 21 24 32
2023-03-15	8	2nd	9 14 28 30 35
2023-02-15	7	3rd	4

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 14 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.