Number 15

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

8times drawn · chance expected 13 −1.40σ

19draws waiting · a wait this long: 10% for any number

11.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

51longest completed wait · 1% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 8 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −1.40σ. Each draw is independent: after 19 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 8 times in 104 draws · average wait 11.1 draws · longest completed wait 51 · waiting 19 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 1.3
2nd smallest4 · chance 3.2
3rd smallest3 · chance 2.6
4th smallest1 · chance 0.8
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

25 33 3 6 11 14

Never drawn alongside 18 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 18 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-02-15	15	4th	4 13 14 15 25
2022-12-24	1	3rd	8 14 15 19 37
2022-12-21	2	2nd	6 15 16 34 40
2022-12-14	3	3rd	3

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.