Number 17

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

10times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.80σ

29draws waiting · a wait this long: 3% for any number

8.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

23longest completed wait · 41% chance of one at least that long

17 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 10 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −0.80σ. Each draw is independent: after 29 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 17, draw by draw

Drawn 10 times in 104 draws · average wait 8.1 draws · longest completed wait 23 · waiting 29 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 17 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 1.2
2nd smallest6 · chance 3.5
3rd smallest2 · chance 3.6
4th smallest1 · chance 1.5
5th smallest0 · chance 0.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 24 27 40 16 18

Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 17 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 17 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-01-11	1	2nd	1 17 27 30 38
2023-01-07	9	3rd	5 10 17 35 40
2022-12-07	9	4th	1 8 14 17 27
2022-11-05	4	2nd	13

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 17 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.