Number 40

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

15times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.69σ

12draws waiting · a wait this long: 24% for any number

6.2average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

14longest completed wait · 94% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 15 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, +0.69σ. Each draw is independent: after 12 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 15 times in 104 draws · average wait 6.2 draws · longest completed wait 14 · waiting 12 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.0
4th smallest0 · chance 1.5
5th smallest15 · chance 13.5

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

6 22 34 13 16 17

Never drawn alongside 7 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-03-11	5	5th	22 23 28 30 40
2023-02-22	1	5th	2 6 8 16 40
2023-02-18	12	5th	6 24 27 36 40
2023-01-07	5	5th	5

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.