Number 30

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

11times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.50σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 68% for any number

7.2average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

17longest completed wait · 74% chance of one at least that long

30 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 11 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −0.50σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 30, draw by draw

Drawn 11 times in 104 draws · average wait 7.2 draws · longest completed wait 17 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.6
3rd smallest1 · chance 2.7
4th smallest9 · chance 4.8
5th smallest1 · chance 2.9

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 3 22 28 38 2

Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 13 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 30 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-04-08	4	5th	2 12 18 19 30
2023-03-25	3	4th	20 22 26 30 37
2023-03-15	1	4th	9 14 28 30 35
2023-03-11	17	4th	22

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.