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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).
Drawn 10 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −0.80σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 10 times in 104 draws · average wait 10.2 draws · longest completed wait 39 · waiting 7 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 37 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 17 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 37 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 37 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-29 | 1 | 5th | 2125263537 |
| 2023-03-25 | 15 | 5th | 2022263037 |
| 2023-02-01 | 1 | 5th | 1319202437 |
| 2023-01-28 | 4 | 5th | 2 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 37 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2023-01-14 | 6 | 4th | 2125293739 |
| 2022-12-24 | 15 | 5th | 814151937 |
| 2022-11-02 | 6 | 5th | 1318293237 |
| 2022-10-12 | 5 | 5th | 821222337 |
| 2022-09-24 | 39 | 5th | 1132343637 |
| 2022-05-11 | — | 4th | 2229343740 |