Number 14

In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

11times drawn · chance expected 11 +0.09σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 54% for any number

5.5average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

14longest completed wait · 76% chance of one at least that long

14 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 11 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, +0.09σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 14, draw by draw

Drawn 11 times in 75 draws · average wait 5.5 draws · longest completed wait 14 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 14 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest3 · chance 1.4
2nd smallest4 · chance 4.1
3rd smallest3 · chance 3.9
4th smallest1 · chance 1.4
5th smallest0 · chance 0.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

26 33 1 10 15 22

Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 14 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 14 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-03	7	3rd	1 10 14 25 34
2022-10-10	3	3rd	1 8 14 23 25
2022-09-19	8	3rd	7 10 14 27 33
2022-08-22	14	1st	14

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 14 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.