Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 13 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, +0.75σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 13 times in 75 draws · average wait 5.4 draws · longest completed wait 11 · waiting 7 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 35 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 7 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 35 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 35 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-27 | 7 | 5th | 511161835 |
| 2022-10-03 | 10 | 5th | 1117283135 |
| 2022-08-18 | 11 | 5th | 1220262735 |
| 2022-07-11 | 6 | 5th | 3 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 35 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-06-20 | 1 | 5th | 1518293435 |
| 2022-06-16 | 3 | 5th | 1561935 |
| 2022-06-06 | 3 | 5th | 2882035 |
| 2022-05-26 | 6 | 5th | 512183435 |
| 2022-05-05 | 1 | 5th | 1415263335 |
| 2022-05-02 | 11 | 5th | 1215162835 |
| 2022-03-24 | 2 | 5th | 813151835 |
| 2022-03-17 | 4 | 5th | 1113273335 |
| 2022-03-03 | — | 5th | 24172235 |