Number 15

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Nov 2016 – Sep 2022 rules — 1,768 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

191times drawn · chance expected 204 −0.97σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 69% for any number

9.3average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

71longest completed wait · 3% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 191 times in 1,768 draws against 204.0 expected, −0.97σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 191 times in 1,768 draws · average wait 9.3 draws · longest completed wait 71 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest29 · chance 35.0
2nd smallest93 · chance 98.0
3rd smallest69 · chance 57.9

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

8 1 9 13 17 4

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 25 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-09-15	13	2nd	4 15 22
2022-09-01	4	3rd	7 9 15
2022-08-28	1	3rd	1 5 15
2022-08-27	5	1st	15 17 24
2022-08-22	18	3rd	1 6 15
2022-08-04	16	2nd

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.

2022-03-08	3	3rd	1 13 15
2022-03-05	49	3rd	8 11 15
2022-01-15	1	1st	15 16 20
2022-01-14	10	2nd	1 15 21
2022-01-04	3	2nd	12 15 24
2022-01-01	20	3rd	1 7 15
2021-12-12	9	2nd	3 15 23
2021-12-03	8	2nd	3 15 18
2021-11-25	1	2nd	5 15 25
2021-11-24	10	1st	15 16 21
2021-11-14	21	1st	15 16 19
2021-10-24	1	2nd	4 15 17
2021-10-23	0	2nd	7 15
2021-10-23	17	2nd	7 15
2021-10-06	4	2nd	2 15 18
2021-10-02	8	3rd	7 14 15
2021-09-24	24	1st	15 19 21
2021-08-31	6	3rd	4 12 15
2021-08-25	4	2nd	4 15 17
2021-08-21	7	3rd	4 11 15
2021-08-14	8	3rd	1 6 15
2021-08-06	22	1st	15 18 22
2021-07-15	1	2nd	2 15 22
2021-07-14	2	3rd	5 8 15
2021-07-12	1	3rd	4 8 15
2021-07-11	4	3rd	7 13 15
2021-07-07	8	3rd	8 12 15
2021-06-29	2	2nd	13 15 18
2021-06-27	10	2nd	9 15 25
2021-06-17	4	2nd	9 15 18
2021-06-13	3	3rd	3 14 15
2021-06-10	3	3rd	8 11 15
2021-06-07	3	2nd	1 15 26
2021-06-04	14	2nd	9 15 16
2021-05-21	7	3rd	7 12 15
2021-05-14	1	2nd	13 15 18
2021-05-13	21	2nd	1 15 21
2021-04-22	8	3rd	2 9 15
2021-04-14	8	3rd	8 11 15
2021-04-06	1	2nd	2 15 25
2021-04-05	4	3rd	2 7 15
2021-04-01	3	2nd	6 15 23
2021-03-29	5	3rd	2 10 15
2021-03-24	12	3rd	5 9 15
2021-03-12	10	3rd	2 13 15
2021-03-02	2	2nd	9 15 19
2021-02-28	12	3rd	7 8 15
2021-02-16	12	3rd	4 6 15
2021-02-04	4	3rd	1 9 15
2021-01-31	17	2nd	13 15 20
2021-01-14	71	2nd	5 15 18
2020-11-04	9	2nd	4 15 22
2020-10-26	23	3rd	1 3 15
2020-10-03	3	3rd	3 5 15
2020-09-30	17	3rd	1 8 15
2020-09-13	8	2nd	11 15 25
2020-09-05	6	3rd	7 9 15
2020-08-30	8	3rd	1 2 15
2020-08-22	1	1st	15 17 17
2020-08-21	24	3rd	3 12 15
2020-07-28	8	2nd	4 15 17
2020-07-20	8	1st	15 20 21
2020-07-12	19	2nd	14 15 20
2020-06-23	15	2nd	11 15 17
2020-06-08	3	2nd	13 15 17
2020-06-05	29	2nd	7 15 18
2020-05-07	1	2nd	14 15 23
2020-05-06	4	2nd	9 15 22
2020-05-02	0	1st	15 26
2020-05-02	6	1st	15 26
2020-04-26	2	2nd	11 15 22
2020-04-24	10	3rd	3 12 15
2020-04-14	9	2nd	9 15 16
2020-04-05	10	3rd	3 6 15
2020-03-26	6	3rd	9 13 15
2020-03-20	3	2nd	8 15 26
2020-03-17	8	3rd	13 13 15
2020-03-09	10	1st	15 22 23
2020-02-28	15	2nd	3 15 17
2020-02-13	17	2nd	5 15 17
2020-01-27	16	3rd	1 14 15
2020-01-11	15	2nd	6 15 19
2019-12-27	6	2nd	10 15 24
2019-12-21	10	1st	15 18 22
2019-12-11	2	1st	15 19 19
2019-12-09	3	2nd	12 15 17
2019-12-06	10	2nd	5 15 21
2019-11-26	36	2nd	4 15 26
2019-10-21	20	2nd	10 15 19
2019-10-01	1	3rd	4 6 15
2019-09-30	11	2nd	1 15 19
2019-09-19	2	3rd	1 13 15
2019-09-17	7	3rd	6 14 15
2019-09-10	3	1st	15 16 24
2019-09-07	4	3rd	1 9 15
2019-09-03	2	1st	15 16 17
2019-09-01	21	3rd	8 10 15
2019-08-11	3	3rd	1 5 15
2019-08-08	11	2nd	9 15 23
2019-07-28	10	2nd	4 15 24
2019-07-18	8	2nd	13 15 16
2019-07-10	14	1st	15 18 25
2019-06-26	19	2nd	8 15 19
2019-06-07	2	2nd	13 15 17
2019-06-05	1	2nd	3 15 21
2019-06-04	15	1st	15 16 22
2019-05-20	6	2nd	13 15 17
2019-05-14	3	3rd	5 14 15
2019-05-11	1	2nd	10 15 17
2019-05-10	13	2nd	11 15 26
2019-04-27	5	1st	15 18 25
2019-04-22	11	2nd	8 15 26
2019-04-11	1	2nd	11 15 25
2019-04-10	18	2nd	1 15 26
2019-03-23	11	3rd	5 14 15
2019-03-12	10	3rd	1 4 15
2019-03-02	9	2nd	13 15 17
2019-02-21	4	3rd	6 12 15
2019-02-17	14	1st	15 16 26
2019-02-03	1	3rd	2 9 15
2019-02-02	13	2nd	6 15 23
2019-01-20	10	3rd	2 8 15
2019-01-10	8	2nd	8 15 17
2019-01-02	3	2nd	2 15 24
2017-12-30	30	3rd	7 13 15
2017-11-30	17	2nd	11 15 17
2017-11-13	5	2nd	8 15 22
2017-11-08	5	2nd	11 15 21
2017-11-03	31	3rd	13 13 15
2017-10-03	2	3rd	9 13 15
2017-10-01	3	1st	15 20 22
2017-09-28	5	2nd	3 15 20
2017-09-23	17	2nd	12 15 19
2017-09-06	1	2nd	2 15 18
2017-09-05	17	1st	15 18 22
2017-08-19	10	3rd	8 8 15
2017-08-09	1	3rd	4 8 15
2017-08-08	6	2nd	8 15 16
2017-08-02	12	2nd	5 15 16
2017-07-21	7	2nd	4 15 17
2017-07-14	14	2nd	6 15 18
2017-06-30	6	2nd	14 15 21
2017-06-24	8	2nd	12 15 18
2017-06-16	4	2nd	13 15 20
2017-06-12	6	3rd	1 6 15
2017-06-06	7	2nd	9 15 21
2017-05-30	7	3rd	3 14 15
2017-05-23	5	3rd	5 8 15
2017-05-18	5	1st	15 19 20
2017-05-13	20	1st	15 23 25
2017-04-23	8	2nd	2 15 21
2017-04-15	1	2nd	9 15 22
2017-04-14	7	2nd	10 15 22
2017-04-07	10	3rd	2 8 15
2017-03-28	18	2nd	14 15 26
2017-03-10	4	2nd	5 15 18
2017-03-06	3	3rd	4 12 15
2017-03-03	12	3rd	3 9 15
2017-02-19	8	2nd	7 15 23
2017-02-11	6	3rd	6 11 15
2017-02-05	7	3rd	4 14 15
2017-01-29	27	2nd	4 15 17
2017-01-02	24	2nd	11 15 25
2016-12-09	9	2nd	14 15 18
2016-11-30	9	1st	15 20 23
2016-11-21	0	1st	15 21
2016-11-21	—	1st	15 21