Number 21

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Nov 2016 – Sep 2022 rules — 1,768 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

181times drawn · chance expected 204 −1.71σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 88% for any number

9.8average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

63longest completed wait · 9% chance of one at least that long

21 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 181 times in 1,768 draws against 204.0 expected, −1.71σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 21, draw by draw

Drawn 181 times in 1,768 draws · average wait 9.8 draws · longest completed wait 63 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 6.0
2nd smallest38 · chance 60.3
3rd smallest142 · chance 114.6

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 14.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 4 2 8 6 11

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 25 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 21 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-09-17	1	3rd	10 19 21
2022-09-16	21	3rd	2 18 21
2022-08-25	63	3rd	4 18 21
2022-06-23	24	3rd	7 8 21
2022-05-30	22	3rd	6 12 21
2022-05-08	6	3rd

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.

2021-12-27	26	3rd	3 8 21
2021-12-01	5	3rd	2 16 21
2021-11-26	2	2nd	4 21 24
2021-11-24	23	3rd	15 16 21
2021-11-01	10	3rd	8 19 21
2021-10-22	7	3rd	1 12 21
2021-10-15	12	3rd	5 13 21
2021-10-03	9	3rd	3 20 21
2021-09-24	46	3rd	15 19 21
2021-08-09	10	3rd	4 17 21
2021-07-30	8	3rd	2 7 21
2021-07-22	2	2nd	14 21 23
2021-07-20	10	3rd	1 19 21
2021-07-10	0	2nd	13 21
2021-07-10	10	2nd	13 21
2021-06-30	24	3rd	10 19 21
2021-06-06	10	2nd	8 21 23
2021-05-27	12	3rd	5 5 21
2021-05-15	2	3rd	10 16 21
2021-05-13	7	3rd	1 15 21
2021-05-06	16	3rd	3 17 21
2021-04-20	3	3rd	2 4 21
2021-04-17	18	2nd	3 21 24
2021-03-30	15	3rd	14 19 21
2021-03-15	23	3rd	9 11 21
2021-02-20	15	3rd	1 9 21
2021-02-05	16	3rd	9 17 21
2021-01-20	3	2nd	2 21 22
2021-01-17	31	3rd	2 7 21
2020-12-17	1	2nd	9 21 25
2020-12-16	4	3rd	8 9 21
2020-12-12	2	3rd	9 12 21
2020-12-10	9	3rd	1 4 21
2020-12-01	3	3rd	2 5 21
2020-11-28	11	3rd	1 19 21
2020-11-17	1	3rd	1 18 21
2020-11-16	23	3rd	2 12 21
2020-10-24	29	3rd	2 11 21
2020-09-25	1	3rd	1 13 21
2020-09-24	1	3rd	8 11 21
2020-09-23	5	3rd	7 17 21
2020-09-18	8	3rd	8 17 21
2020-09-10	10	2nd	17 21 23
2020-08-31	2	3rd	1 18 21
2020-08-29	29	2nd	13 21 25
2020-07-31	5	3rd	6 19 21
2020-07-26	1	3rd	3 17 21
2020-07-25	5	3rd	6 20 21
2020-07-20	17	3rd	15 20 21
2020-07-03	9	2nd	2 21 23
2020-06-24	22	3rd	11 19 21
2020-06-02	6	3rd	5 18 21
2020-05-27	13	3rd	1 4 21
2020-05-14	16	3rd	1 12 21
2020-04-28	6	3rd	1 12 21
2020-04-22	6	3rd	3 6 21
2020-04-16	8	3rd	17 18 21
2020-04-08	12	3rd	4 18 21
2020-03-27	36	2nd	6 21 23
2020-02-20	38	3rd	1 20 21
2020-01-13	5	3rd	1 18 21
2020-01-08	1	2nd	7 21 23
2020-01-07	10	3rd	1 3 21
2019-12-28	15	3rd	4 11 21
2019-12-13	1	2nd	8 21 25
2019-12-12	6	3rd	2 11 21
2019-12-06	29	3rd	5 15 21
2019-11-07	2	3rd	1 17 21
2019-11-05	3	2nd	8 21 22
2019-11-02	1	3rd	11 17 21
2019-11-01	8	3rd	17 19 21
2019-10-24	4	3rd	7 10 21
2019-10-20	6	3rd	16 19 21
2019-10-14	12	3rd	6 18 21
2019-10-02	6	3rd	6 7 21
2019-09-26	8	3rd	4 17 21
2019-09-18	21	3rd	8 18 21
2019-08-28	1	2nd	8 21 22
2019-08-27	17	2nd	5 21 24
2019-08-10	4	3rd	3 18 21
2019-08-06	2	2nd	4 21 23
2019-08-04	13	3rd	6 20 21
2019-07-22	17	3rd	3 6 21
2019-07-05	4	3rd	9 19 21
2019-07-01	1	2nd	12 21 23
2019-06-30	11	3rd	4 6 21
2019-06-19	2	3rd	3 4 21
2019-06-17	6	2nd	1 21 25
2019-06-11	3	3rd	4 18 21
2019-06-08	3	3rd	2 14 21
2019-06-05	10	3rd	3 15 21
2019-05-26	2	3rd	8 12 21
2019-05-24	2	3rd	5 13 21
2019-05-22	3	3rd	7 13 21
2019-05-19	2	3rd	10 18 21
2019-05-17	5	3rd	8 14 21
2019-05-12	26	3rd	1 7 21
2019-04-16	7	3rd	4 5 21
2019-04-09	11	3rd	1 11 21
2019-03-29	21	3rd	5 12 21
2019-03-08	14	3rd	1 4 21
2019-02-22	14	3rd	5 10 21
2019-02-08	2	3rd	4 5 21
2019-02-06	1	3rd	4 8 21
2019-02-05	19	3rd	2 16 21
2019-01-17	6	3rd	1 8 21
2019-01-11	2	1st	21 24 25
2019-01-09	8	3rd	1 6 21
2019-01-01	6	3rd	6 13 21
2017-12-26	9	3rd	9 10 21
2017-12-17	25	2nd	16 21 24
2017-11-22	1	3rd	7 10 21
2017-11-21	4	3rd	3 11 21
2017-11-17	9	3rd	8 9 21
2017-11-08	2	3rd	11 15 21
2017-11-06	1	2nd	14 21 25
2017-11-05	0	2nd	11 21
2017-11-05	1	2nd	11 21
2017-11-04	8	3rd	10 12 21
2017-10-27	22	2nd	6 21 25
2017-10-05	14	3rd	1 10 21
2017-09-21	1	2nd	17 21 25
2017-09-20	7	3rd	1 14 21
2017-09-13	2	3rd	2 16 21
2017-09-11	14	3rd	4 17 21
2017-08-28	1	3rd	3 20 21
2017-08-27	2	3rd	6 12 21
2017-08-25	1	3rd	7 20 21
2017-08-24	7	3rd	7 11 21
2017-08-17	2	3rd	6 14 21
2017-08-15	26	3rd	3 12 21
2017-07-20	18	3rd	5 6 21
2017-07-02	2	3rd	8 9 21
2017-06-30	1	3rd	14 15 21
2017-06-29	11	2nd	12 21 24
2017-06-18	11	3rd	8 16 21
2017-06-07	1	3rd	12 13 21
2017-06-06	16	3rd	9 15 21
2017-05-21	1	3rd	1 8 21
2017-05-20	6	2nd	1 21 22
2017-05-14	20	3rd	4 11 21
2017-04-24	1	3rd	4 17 21
2017-04-23	2	3rd	2 15 21
2017-04-21	8	3rd	4 10 21
2017-04-13	4	3rd	12 14 21
2017-04-09	10	3rd	5 12 21
2017-03-30	31	3rd	11 13 21
2017-02-27	6	3rd	11 18 21
2017-02-21	31	3rd	6 11 21
2017-01-21	1	3rd	2 20 21
2017-01-20	15	2nd	5 21 25
2017-01-05	1	2nd	9 21 24
2017-01-04	14	3rd	9 17 21
2016-12-21	23	2nd	1 21 23
2016-11-28	6	3rd	5 10 21
2016-11-22	1	2nd	4 21 24
2016-11-21	—	3rd	15 15 21