Number 16

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Nov 2016 – Sep 2022 rules — 1,768 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

195times drawn · chance expected 204 −0.67σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

9.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

66longest completed wait · 6% chance of one at least that long

16 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 195 times in 1,768 draws against 204.0 expected, −0.67σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 16, draw by draw

Drawn 195 times in 1,768 draws · average wait 9.1 draws · longest completed wait 66 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest18 · chance 29.3
2nd smallest96 · chance 97.5
3rd smallest81 · chance 68.3

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

7 4 6 3 2 8

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 25 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-09-18	7	3rd	6 12 16
2022-09-10	5	2nd	9 16 20
2022-09-05	2	2nd	8 16 22
2022-09-03	4	1st	16 20 23
2022-08-30	29	3rd	3 12 16
2022-08-01	13	2nd

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.

2021-12-14	8	2nd	6 16 20
2021-12-06	5	1st	16 22 23
2021-12-01	7	2nd	2 16 21
2021-11-24	3	2nd	15 16 21
2021-11-21	3	3rd	1 2 16
2021-11-18	4	3rd	4 8 16
2021-11-14	24	2nd	15 16 19
2021-10-21	5	2nd	3 16 17
2021-10-16	2	3rd	8 12 16
2021-10-14	3	2nd	10 16 18
2021-10-11	13	2nd	6 16 22
2021-09-28	1	2nd	3 16 25
2021-09-27	13	3rd	3 14 16
2021-09-14	1	3rd	3 14 16
2021-09-13	3	1st	16 20 23
2021-09-10	15	3rd	7 7 16
2021-08-26	8	3rd	2 12 16
2021-08-18	0	2nd	8 16
2021-08-18	2	2nd	8 16
2021-08-16	5	3rd	7 8 16
2021-08-11	4	3rd	4 6 16
2021-08-07	10	3rd	6 7 16
2021-07-28	9	2nd	1 16 17
2021-07-19	29	2nd	14 16 19
2021-06-20	5	3rd	10 10 16
2021-06-15	11	2nd	8 16 19
2021-06-04	4	3rd	9 15 16
2021-05-31	2	3rd	1 7 16
2021-05-29	5	2nd	4 16 18
2021-05-24	9	2nd	3 16 18
2021-05-15	5	2nd	10 16 21
2021-05-10	22	2nd	10 16 22
2021-04-18	7	3rd	5 6 16
2021-04-11	21	3rd	1 12 16
2021-03-21	3	3rd	7 13 16
2021-03-18	14	2nd	10 16 24
2021-03-04	20	2nd	11 16 22
2021-02-12	6	3rd	12 14 16
2021-02-06	25	3rd	9 12 16
2021-01-12	5	3rd	7 13 16
2021-01-07	0	1st	16 24
2021-01-07	1	1st	16 24
2021-01-06	10	2nd	5 16 23
2020-12-27	4	2nd	10 16 17
2020-12-23	4	2nd	1 16 24
2020-12-19	11	2nd	8 16 25
2020-12-08	6	3rd	2 14 16
2020-12-02	6	2nd	6 16 22
2020-11-26	12	3rd	3 13 16
2020-11-14	11	2nd	2 16 24
2020-11-03	7	3rd	7 14 16
2020-10-27	5	3rd	5 6 16
2020-10-22	15	2nd	11 16 19
2020-10-07	18	3rd	11 12 16
2020-09-19	0	2nd	4 16
2020-09-19	31	2nd	4 16
2020-08-19	8	2nd	8 16 20
2020-08-11	12	3rd	11 13 16
2020-07-30	16	1st	16 19 26
2020-07-14	1	1st	16 17 24
2020-07-13	5	3rd	3 7 16
2020-07-08	9	2nd	3 16 25
2020-06-29	3	3rd	6 11 16
2020-06-26	25	2nd	7 16 18
2020-06-01	11	2nd	6 16 22
2020-05-21	11	3rd	2 11 16
2020-05-10	9	2nd	4 16 20
2020-05-01	12	1st	16 18 19
2020-04-19	1	3rd	3 10 16
2020-04-18	4	2nd	8 16 17
2020-04-14	31	3rd	9 15 16
2020-03-14	1	3rd	2 5 16
2020-03-13	11	2nd	7 16 23
2020-03-02	43	3rd	1 2 16
2020-01-19	3	3rd	4 10 16
2020-01-16	15	2nd	2 16 26
2020-01-01	8	3rd	1 7 16
2019-12-24	7	2nd	6 16 19
2019-12-17	10	3rd	7 14 16
2019-12-07	4	2nd	9 16 20
2019-12-03	10	2nd	3 16 23
2019-11-23	15	3rd	11 14 16
2019-11-08	14	3rd	6 11 16
2019-10-25	5	2nd	3 16 22
2019-10-20	2	1st	16 19 21
2019-10-18	38	3rd	5 11 16
2019-09-10	1	2nd	15 16 24
2019-09-09	1	3rd	8 9 16
2019-09-08	5	3rd	2 6 16
2019-09-03	10	2nd	15 16 17
2019-08-24	0	2nd	7 16
2019-08-24	2	2nd	7 16
2019-08-22	29	2nd	7 16 19
2019-07-24	3	2nd	11 16 22
2019-07-21	3	3rd	11 12 16
2019-07-18	9	3rd	13 15 16
2019-07-09	3	2nd	4 16 24
2019-07-06	22	3rd	3 4 16
2019-06-14	10	2nd	7 16 22
2019-06-04	7	2nd	15 16 22
2019-05-28	3	1st	16 18 20
2019-05-25	12	2nd	3 16 20
2019-05-13	4	1st	16 17 24
2019-05-09	2	2nd	2 16 24
2019-05-07	2	3rd	4 7 16
2019-05-05	17	3rd	5 9 16
2019-04-18	1	2nd	14 16 18
2019-04-17	12	3rd	4 9 16
2019-04-05	2	2nd	2 16 25
2019-04-03	12	2nd	3 16 25
2019-03-22	6	3rd	4 6 16
2019-03-16	27	2nd	3 16 23
2019-02-17	12	2nd	15 16 26
2019-02-05	1	2nd	2 16 21
2019-02-04	4	2nd	2 16 23
2019-01-31	8	3rd	4 9 16
2019-01-23	2	1st	16 25 26
2019-01-21	5	3rd	1 8 16
2019-01-16	4	3rd	1 8 16
2019-01-12	7	3rd	8 14 16
2019-01-05	11	2nd	12 16 22
2017-12-25	1	2nd	7 16 20
2017-12-24	4	2nd	10 16 25
2017-12-20	3	2nd	1 16 26
2017-12-17	5	1st	16 21 24
2017-12-12	2	3rd	4 8 16
2017-12-10	0	2nd	13 16
2017-12-10	1	2nd	13 16
2017-12-09	40	3rd	2 12 16
2017-10-30	9	1st	16 25 26
2017-10-21	6	3rd	4 12 16
2017-10-15	0	2nd	7 16
2017-10-15	15	2nd	7 16
2017-09-30	13	3rd	3 4 16
2017-09-17	1	3rd	6 7 16
2017-09-16	3	2nd	14 16 20
2017-09-13	3	2nd	2 16 21
2017-09-10	18	3rd	13 13 16
2017-08-23	1	3rd	6 14 16
2017-08-22	11	3rd	3 8 16
2017-08-11	3	2nd	4 16 22
2017-08-08	6	3rd	8 15 16
2017-08-02	6	3rd	5 15 16
2017-07-27	3	1st	16 17 18
2017-07-24	7	2nd	3 16 17
2017-07-17	10	3rd	4 5 16
2017-07-07	6	3rd	2 4 16
2017-07-01	13	3rd	11 14 16
2017-06-18	14	2nd	8 16 21
2017-06-04	2	2nd	11 16 26
2017-06-02	21	2nd	3 16 25
2017-05-12	4	3rd	9 10 16
2017-05-08	9	2nd	6 16 22
2017-04-29	19	2nd	14 16 22
2017-04-10	14	2nd	4 16 24
2017-03-27	1	3rd	10 12 16
2017-03-26	12	1st	16 18 25
2017-03-14	1	3rd	4 13 16
2017-03-13	4	3rd	3 11 16
2017-03-09	2	2nd	1 16 18
2017-03-07	5	3rd	4 10 16
2017-03-02	1	2nd	13 16 19
2017-03-01	3	2nd	6 16 19
2017-02-26	3	3rd	6 7 16
2017-02-23	37	3rd	4 9 16
2017-01-17	2	2nd	4 16 18
2017-01-15	3	1st	16 18 22
2017-01-12	19	3rd	8 11 16
2016-12-24	17	3rd	5 7 16
2016-12-07	20	2nd	6 16 25
2016-11-17	—	2nd	14 16 19