Number 18

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Nov 2016 – Sep 2022 rules — 1,768 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

203times drawn · chance expected 204 −0.07σ

3draws waiting · a wait this long: 78% for any number

8.7average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

41longest completed wait · 78% chance of one at least that long

18 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 203 times in 1,768 draws against 204.0 expected, −0.07σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 18, draw by draw

Drawn 203 times in 1,768 draws · average wait 8.7 draws · longest completed wait 41 · waiting 3 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 18 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest6 · chance 18.9
2nd smallest92 · chance 92.0
3rd smallest105 · chance 92.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 16.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

3 1 2 8 9 17

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 25 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 18 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 18 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-09-16	17	2nd	2 18 21
2022-08-29	4	3rd	1 5 18
2022-08-25	7	2nd	4 18 21
2022-08-18	25	3rd	3 13 18
2022-07-24	1	3rd	1 2 18
2022-07-23	1	3rd

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 18 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.

2022-01-24	25	2nd	5 18 25
2021-12-30	1	3rd	1 9 18
2021-12-29	18	3rd	1 8 18
2021-12-11	8	3rd	17 17 18
2021-12-03	13	3rd	3 15 18
2021-11-20	1	3rd	7 9 18
2021-11-19	2	3rd	4 9 18
2021-11-17	13	2nd	10 18 19
2021-11-04	21	2nd	8 18 22
2021-10-14	6	3rd	10 16 18
2021-10-08	2	3rd	1 8 18
2021-10-06	19	3rd	2 15 18
2021-09-17	19	3rd	5 10 18
2021-08-29	2	2nd	12 18 19
2021-08-27	3	3rd	3 10 18
2021-08-24	18	2nd	3 18 20
2021-08-06	3	2nd	15 18 22
2021-08-03	2	2nd	6 18 20
2021-08-01	1	2nd	3 18 19
2021-07-31	8	2nd	13 18 24
2021-07-23	10	3rd	5 7 18
2021-07-13	14	2nd	6 18 20
2021-06-29	4	3rd	13 15 18
2021-06-25	0	1st	18 24
2021-06-25	8	1st	18 24
2021-06-17	3	3rd	9 15 18
2021-06-14	16	1st	18 19 23
2021-05-29	1	3rd	4 16 18
2021-05-28	4	2nd	2 18 19
2021-05-24	10	3rd	3 16 18
2021-05-14	14	3rd	13 15 18
2021-04-30	1	3rd	3 8 18
2021-04-29	6	3rd	11 14 18
2021-04-23	2	2nd	1 18 23
2021-04-21	17	3rd	7 14 18
2021-04-04	2	3rd	4 9 18
2021-04-02	0	2nd	9 18
2021-04-02	5	2nd	9 18
2021-03-28	11	3rd	4 12 18
2021-03-17	4	2nd	11 18 22
2021-03-13	28	3rd	8 12 18
2021-02-13	17	3rd	8 13 18
2021-01-27	13	3rd	3 8 18
2021-01-14	21	3rd	5 15 18
2020-12-24	13	3rd	7 12 18
2020-12-11	0	2nd	14 18
2020-12-11	2	2nd	14 18
2020-12-09	21	2nd	2 18 23
2020-11-18	1	2nd	9 18 25
2020-11-17	7	2nd	1 18 21
2020-11-10	3	2nd	8 18 23
2020-11-07	13	1st	18 23 24
2020-10-25	4	2nd	5 18 20
2020-10-21	5	1st	18 22 26
2020-10-16	8	3rd	12 14 18
2020-10-08	2	3rd	2 6 18
2020-10-06	2	2nd	10 18 24
2020-10-04	34	3rd	5 7 18
2020-08-31	7	2nd	1 18 21
2020-08-24	11	2nd	5 18 26
2020-08-13	1	2nd	1 18 25
2020-08-12	19	2nd	9 18 19
2020-07-24	1	3rd	6 8 18
2020-07-23	14	3rd	3 14 18
2020-07-09	13	3rd	3 4 18
2020-06-26	4	3rd	7 16 18
2020-06-22	1	3rd	3 14 18
2020-06-21	2	3rd	7 9 18
2020-06-19	5	3rd	8 11 18
2020-06-14	9	2nd	11 18 25
2020-06-05	3	3rd	7 15 18
2020-06-02	2	2nd	5 18 21
2020-05-31	8	2nd	10 18 19
2020-05-23	19	3rd	8 13 18
2020-05-04	0	2nd	17 18
2020-05-04	3	2nd	17 18
2020-05-01	1	2nd	16 18 19
2020-04-30	14	3rd	17 17 18
2020-04-16	1	2nd	17 18 21
2020-04-15	7	3rd	4 9 18
2020-04-08	15	2nd	4 18 21
2020-03-24	21	3rd	3 8 18
2020-03-03	6	3rd	1 14 18
2020-02-26	7	2nd	1 18 25
2020-02-19	5	2nd	9 18 20
2020-02-14	2	3rd	14 17 18
2020-02-12	30	3rd	1 5 18
2020-01-13	3	2nd	1 18 21
2020-01-10	5	2nd	5 18 20
2020-01-05	14	3rd	10 12 18
2019-12-22	1	3rd	10 13 18
2019-12-21	22	2nd	15 18 22
2019-11-29	9	2nd	3 18 26
2019-11-20	4	3rd	2 17 18
2019-11-16	13	2nd	11 18 19
2019-11-03	6	3rd	9 9 18
2019-10-28	5	3rd	7 12 18
2019-10-23	1	3rd	4 11 18
2019-10-22	8	2nd	2 18 19
2019-10-14	7	2nd	6 18 21
2019-10-07	2	3rd	3 7 18
2019-10-05	7	3rd	1 10 18
2019-09-28	7	3rd	8 8 18
2019-09-21	3	2nd	13 18 20
2019-09-18	5	2nd	8 18 21
2019-09-13	9	2nd	3 18 26
2019-09-04	14	2nd	3 18 19
2019-08-21	2	3rd	3 3 18
2019-08-19	9	2nd	5 18 24
2019-08-10	3	2nd	3 18 21
2019-08-07	5	3rd	2 3 18
2019-08-02	4	3rd	1 14 18
2019-07-29	19	2nd	9 18 22
2019-07-10	2	2nd	15 18 25
2019-07-08	16	3rd	2 4 18
2019-06-22	2	3rd	10 17 18
2019-06-20	4	2nd	1 18 19
2019-06-16	5	3rd	4 6 18
2019-06-11	14	2nd	4 18 21
2019-05-28	9	2nd	16 18 20
2019-05-19	22	2nd	10 18 21
2019-04-27	6	2nd	15 18 25
2019-04-21	3	2nd	12 18 25
2019-04-18	11	3rd	14 16 18
2019-04-07	7	2nd	5 18 26
2019-03-31	7	3rd	2 6 18
2019-03-24	20	3rd	13 13 18
2019-03-04	4	2nd	7 18 25
2019-02-28	41	2nd	9 18 25
2019-01-18	21	3rd	8 17 18
2017-12-28	10	2nd	17 18 20
2017-12-18	7	2nd	8 18 23
2017-12-11	8	3rd	8 10 18
2017-12-03	7	2nd	2 18 19
2017-11-26	16	2nd	10 18 23
2017-11-10	8	3rd	2 8 18
2017-11-02	5	3rd	8 14 18
2017-10-28	9	2nd	5 18 19
2017-10-19	7	3rd	1 17 18
2017-10-12	36	2nd	2 18 26
2017-09-06	1	3rd	2 15 18
2017-09-05	5	2nd	15 18 22
2017-08-31	15	3rd	2 17 18
2017-08-16	0	2nd	12 18
2017-08-16	10	2nd	12 18
2017-08-06	2	3rd	3 12 18
2017-08-04	8	1st	18 22 24
2017-07-27	13	3rd	16 17 18
2017-07-14	20	3rd	6 15 18
2017-06-24	15	3rd	12 15 18
2017-06-09	8	2nd	9 18 23
2017-06-01	7	2nd	4 18 24
2017-05-25	1	3rd	5 7 18
2017-05-24	7	3rd	7 17 18
2017-05-17	11	3rd	13 14 18
2017-05-06	3	2nd	8 18 22
2017-05-03	3	3rd	2 5 18
2017-04-30	4	3rd	1 3 18
2017-04-26	4	3rd	2 7 18
2017-04-22	16	2nd	1 18 23
2017-04-06	1	2nd	14 18 20
2017-04-05	10	2nd	14 18 20
2017-03-26	4	2nd	16 18 25
2017-03-22	6	3rd	10 17 18
2017-03-16	6	2nd	11 18 26
2017-03-10	1	3rd	5 15 18
2017-03-09	5	3rd	1 16 18
2017-03-04	5	3rd	7 12 18
2017-02-27	19	2nd	11 18 21
2017-02-08	17	2nd	5 18 22
2017-01-22	5	3rd	1 17 18
2017-01-17	2	3rd	4 16 18
2017-01-15	37	2nd	16 18 22
2016-12-09	6	3rd	14 15 18
2016-12-03	4	3rd	5 9 18
2016-11-29	0	2nd	17 18
2016-11-29	4	2nd	17 18
2016-11-25	2	2nd	2 18 25
2016-11-23	—	3rd	7 13 18