Number 10

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

7times drawn · chance expected 13 −1.70σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 59% for any number

10.2average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

18longest completed wait · 50% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 7 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −1.70σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 7 times in 104 draws · average wait 10.2 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest3 · chance 2.4
2nd smallest3 · chance 3.1
3rd smallest1 · chance 1.3
4th smallest0 · chance 0.2
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

22 24 25 30 38 39

Never drawn alongside 19 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 20 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-04-05	4	2nd	4 10 26 28 38
2023-03-22	6	1st	10 25 33 36 39
2023-03-01	15	1st	10 22 24 25 38
2023-01-07	16	2nd	5

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.