Number 10

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 · Apr 2010 – Apr 2022 rules — 1,257 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

153times drawn · chance expected 153 −0.03σ

7draws waiting · a wait this long: 46% for any number

8.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

42longest completed wait · 52% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 153 times in 1,257 draws against 153.3 expected, −0.03σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 153 times in 1,257 draws · average wait 8.1 draws · longest completed wait 42 · waiting 7 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest49 · chance 52.7
2nd smallest67 · chance 67.7
3rd smallest31 · chance 28.0
4th smallest6 · chance 4.4
5th smallest0 · chance 0.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

7 34 4 5 36 2

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-03-30	3	2nd	8 10 11 19 38
2022-03-19	11	2nd	8 10 18 30 33
2022-02-09	7	2nd	9 10 31 37 39
2022-01-15	3	2nd	3

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.

2020-02-22	3	1st	10 16 21 22 34
2020-02-12	18	2nd	8 10 13 18 25
2019-12-11	12	1st	10 14 22 29 38
2019-10-30	10	3rd	3 8 10 21 28
2019-09-25	7	1st	10 20 27 34 36
2019-08-31	4	1st	10 13 15 17 23
2019-08-17	33	2nd	4 10 13 20 41
2019-04-24	9	1st	10 14 25 27 36
2019-03-23	10	2nd	7 10 16 29 33
2019-02-16	16	1st	10 18 33 37 38
2018-12-22	4	3rd	2 3 10 23 40
2018-12-08	14	3rd	1 3 10 22 33
2018-10-20	7	3rd	4 7 10 20 36
2018-09-26	16	3rd	3 4 10 20 36
2018-08-01	6	1st	10 12 33 34 37
2018-07-11	3	1st	10 14 20 26 36
2018-06-30	6	1st	10 18 24 38 41
2018-06-09	12	3rd	4 5 10 22 39
2018-04-28	4	1st	10 16 18 26 31
2018-04-14	12	4th	6 7 8 10 26
2018-03-03	4	2nd	5 10 17 29 33
2018-02-17	16	2nd	6 10 15 27 37
2017-12-23	3	2nd	4 10 21 31 33
2017-12-13	14	1st	10 13 19 24 31
2017-10-25	17	2nd	4 10 14 15 38
2017-08-26	6	1st	10 22 28 34 39
2017-08-05	3	3rd	2 3 10 28 37
2017-07-26	3	3rd	1 5 10 34 40
2017-07-15	8	2nd	3 10 13 36 37
2017-06-17	5	1st	10 16 18 23 37
2017-05-31	9	1st	10 11 12 21 22
2017-04-29	1	4th	1 5 7 10 23
2017-04-26	18	3rd	2 4 10 34 36
2017-02-22	12	2nd	6 10 12 17 30
2017-01-11	13	2nd	9 10 31 38 39
2016-11-26	2	3rd	2 5 10 24 29
2016-11-19	2	1st	10 16 18 26 40
2016-11-12	4	4th	4 5 7 10 39
2016-10-29	12	2nd	2 10 16 25 32
2016-09-17	19	1st	10 35 36 39 41
2016-07-13	1	1st	10 22 35 38 39
2016-07-09	5	2nd	3 10 31 36 38
2016-06-22	5	3rd	2 8 10 28 40
2016-06-04	4	2nd	7 10 15 22 40
2016-05-21	2	1st	10 15 27 28 34
2016-05-14	17	2nd	5 10 36 37 40
2016-03-16	6	2nd	1 10 25 31 35
2016-02-24	12	1st	10 13 15 17 22
2016-01-13	3	2nd	9 10 25 31 34
2016-01-02	1	2nd	7 10 17 36 41
2015-12-30	7	1st	10 11 18 34 41
2015-12-05	2	3rd	3 7 10 35 41
2015-11-28	15	1st	10 15 27 30 37
2015-10-07	1	2nd	2 10 11 22 28
2015-10-03	2	1st	10 26 29 32 40
2015-09-26	21	3rd	2 6 10 15 19
2015-07-15	8	2nd	7 10 18 20 32
2015-06-17	10	2nd	7 10 11 25 40
2015-05-13	9	3rd	2 4 10 21 27
2015-04-11	1	2nd	1 10 23 27 32
2015-04-08	4	3rd	4 7 10 13 38
2015-03-25	1	2nd	5 10 23 34 35
2015-03-21	16	1st	10 13 20 38 40
2015-01-24	1	3rd	2 3 10 17 27
2015-01-21	1	1st	10 20 26 34 37
2015-01-17	22	2nd	5 10 28 32 35
2014-11-01	4	1st	10 11 12 24 39
2014-10-18	2	2nd	5 10 21 36 41
2014-10-11	20	2nd	3 10 25 31 39
2014-08-02	4	2nd	2 10 12 18 39
2014-07-19	2	3rd	4 7 10 11 27
2014-07-12	2	1st	10 26 30 40 41
2014-07-05	5	2nd	7 10 21 23 38
2014-06-18	6	2nd	1 10 29 34 39
2014-05-28	2	2nd	4 10 22 34 37
2014-05-21	5	2nd	7 10 15 25 34
2014-05-03	1	1st	10 18 19 24 40
2014-04-30	1	3rd	7 8 10 11 24
2014-04-26	1	2nd	5 10 15 19 41
2014-04-23	4	2nd	4 10 13 27 37
2014-04-09	6	2nd	3 10 24 25 38
2014-03-19	17	1st	10 18 19 34 38
2014-01-18	5	3rd	3 9 10 26 36
2014-01-01	1	2nd	7 10 11 28 33
2013-12-28	7	1st	10 19 20 25 27
2013-12-04	4	2nd	5 10 12 16 35
2013-11-20	4	4th	1 4 7 10 31
2013-11-06	2	3rd	2 5 10 11 12
2013-10-30	3	1st	10 11 16 24 38
2013-10-19	13	3rd	4 5 10 12 18
2013-09-04	1	1st	10 12 21 30 35
2013-08-31	4	2nd	4 10 16 26 33
2013-08-17	10	1st	10 12 17 29 34
2013-07-13	2	1st	10 21 22 30 37
2013-07-06	2	1st	10 16 24 29 37
2013-06-29	4	1st	10 13 15 18 36
2013-06-15	1	1st	10 16 23 27 33
2013-06-12	2	2nd	2 10 21 32 41
2013-06-05	2	4th	7 8 9 10 13
2013-05-29	7	3rd	4 7 10 15 24
2013-05-04	1	1st	10 14 21 22 26
2013-05-01	1	1st	10 21 33 37 41
2013-04-27	3	2nd	7 10 18 19 24
2013-04-17	14	1st	10 21 24 27 41
2013-02-27	3	2nd	1 10 23 25 33
2013-02-16	13	1st	10 15 19 22 34
2013-01-02	11	3rd	1 9 10 21 27
2012-11-24	5	2nd	4 10 31 34 35
2012-11-07	7	2nd	5 10 25 37 38
2012-10-13	15	2nd	4 10 13 19 23
2012-08-22	26	3rd	2 5 10 11 34
2012-05-19	42	2nd	5 10 21 24 37
2011-12-24	17	3rd	3 6 10 20 25
2011-10-26	30	1st	10 20 30 31 33
2011-07-13	11	1st	10 14 26 27 28
2011-06-04	5	2nd	6 10 14 17 26
2011-05-18	4	2nd	1 10 22 36 38
2011-05-04	1	2nd	5 10 11 18 34
2011-04-30	5	1st	10 13 23 29 32
2011-04-13	3	3rd	4 7 10 33 38
2011-04-02	1	2nd	7 10 18 27 34
2011-03-30	14	3rd	8 9 10 19 40
2011-02-09	1	2nd	8 10 16 36 41
2011-02-05	6	2nd	8 10 17 25 29
2011-01-15	8	3rd	2 6 10 21 32
2010-12-18	30	2nd	4 10 35 37 40
2010-09-04	4	1st	10 15 17 24 36
2010-08-21	24	2nd	6 10 16 21 24
2010-05-29	—	2nd	9 10 17 22 29