Number 38

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

12times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.20σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 59% for any number

8.9average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

41longest completed wait · 6% chance of one at least that long

38 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 12 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 38, draw by draw

Drawn 12 times in 104 draws · average wait 8.9 draws · longest completed wait 41 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 38 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.3
4th smallest2 · chance 3.1
5th smallest10 · chance 8.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 3 4 25 30 8

Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 38 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 38 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-04-05	8	5th	4 10 26 28 38
2023-03-08	2	5th	1 11 28 31 38
2023-03-01	6	5th	10 22 24 25 38
2023-02-08	6	5th	2

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 38 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.