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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).
Drawn 13 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, +0.10σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 13 times in 104 draws · average wait 8.2 draws · longest completed wait 27 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 35 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 35 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 35 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | 7 | 5th | 2027283435 |
| 2023-03-29 | 4 | 4th | 2125263537 |
| 2023-03-15 | 9 | 5th | 914283035 |
| 2023-02-11 | 10 | 5th | 20 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 35 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2023-01-07 | 3 | 4th | 510173540 |
| 2022-12-28 | 3 | 5th | 15161835 |
| 2022-12-17 | 27 | 4th | 78193536 |
| 2022-09-14 | 12 | 5th | 79142735 |
| 2022-08-03 | 2 | 5th | 3472535 |
| 2022-07-27 | 11 | 5th | 1692435 |
| 2022-06-18 | 2 | 5th | 78122535 |
| 2022-06-11 | 8 | 5th | 1213193335 |
| 2022-05-14 | — | 5th | 511122635 |