Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).
Drawn 14 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, +0.39σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 14 times in 104 draws · average wait 7.8 draws · longest completed wait 27 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 3 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 8 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 10 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 3 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-15 | 23 | 1st | 314161836 |
| 2023-01-25 | 6 | 1st | 312202936 |
| 2023-01-04 | 6 | 2nd | 2392631 |
| 2022-12-14 | 3 | 1st | 3 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 3 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-12-03 | 5 | 1st | 315283133 |
| 2022-11-16 | 1 | 1st | 327303233 |
| 2022-11-12 | 5 | 1st | 310323941 |
| 2022-10-26 | 2 | 1st | 39183139 |
| 2022-10-19 | 1 | 1st | 37223140 |
| 2022-10-15 | 20 | 1st | 39132127 |
| 2022-08-06 | 1 | 2nd | 13163038 |
| 2022-08-03 | 1 | 1st | 3472535 |
| 2022-07-30 | 27 | 2nd | 1343038 |
| 2022-04-27 | — | 1st | 316192138 |