Number 12

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

9times drawn · chance expected 13 −1.10σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 68% for any number

11.8average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

42longest completed wait · 4% chance of one at least that long

12 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 9 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −1.10σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 12, draw by draw

Drawn 9 times in 104 draws · average wait 11.8 draws · longest completed wait 42 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 12 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest2 · chance 2.3
2nd smallest2 · chance 4.0
3rd smallest5 · chance 2.2
4th smallest0 · chance 0.5
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

8 35 2 14 18 19

Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 16 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 12 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 12 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-04-08	17	2nd	2 12 18 19 30
2023-02-08	4	3rd	2 8 12 22 38
2023-01-25	13	2nd	3 12 20 29 36
2022-12-10	42	3rd	8

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 12 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.