Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).
Drawn 12 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, −0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 12 times in 104 draws · average wait 9.3 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 19 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 12 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 19 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 19 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-19 | 2 | 2nd | 1319243241 |
| 2023-04-12 | 1 | 3rd | 15193136 |
| 2023-04-08 | 19 | 4th | 212181930 |
| 2023-02-01 | 11 | 2nd | 13 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 19 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-12-24 | 2 | 4th | 814151937 |
| 2022-12-17 | 6 | 3rd | 78193536 |
| 2022-11-26 | 14 | 2nd | 1619222736 |
| 2022-10-08 | 9 | 2nd | 219202436 |
| 2022-09-07 | 20 | 2nd | 1819212640 |
| 2022-06-29 | 5 | 2nd | 119202440 |
| 2022-06-11 | 13 | 3rd | 1213193335 |
| 2022-04-27 | — | 3rd | 316192138 |