Number 12

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 · Apr 2010 – Apr 2022 rules — 1,257 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

151times drawn · chance expected 153 −0.20σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

8.2average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

34longest completed wait · 87% chance of one at least that long

12 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 151 times in 1,257 draws against 153.3 expected, −0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 12, draw by draw

Drawn 151 times in 1,257 draws · average wait 8.2 draws · longest completed wait 34 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 12 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest35 · chance 39.2
2nd smallest72 · chance 66.4
3rd smallest33 · chance 36.9
4th smallest10 · chance 7.9
5th smallest1 · chance 0.5

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 21 26 37 2 38

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 12 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 12 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-04-20	27	2nd	2 12 22 31 40
2022-01-15	7	4th	3 10 11 12 26
2021-12-22	3	3rd	1 9 12 14 18
2021-12-11	8	1st	12

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 12 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.

2019-11-30	2	2nd	7 12 23 37 38
2019-11-23	4	3rd	1 9 12 14 34
2019-11-09	5	2nd	4 12 18 28 38
2019-10-23	27	2nd	3 12 23 24 29
2019-07-20	5	2nd	2 12 28 29 37
2019-07-03	6	3rd	9 11 12 14 18
2019-06-12	7	1st	12 20 30 39 40
2019-05-18	22	1st	12 16 18 26 32
2019-03-02	3	1st	12 17 19 34 35
2019-02-20	9	4th	3 7 8 12 41
2019-01-19	11	3rd	3 11 12 25 39
2018-12-12	23	2nd	11 12 18 21 33
2018-09-22	6	3rd	6 8 12 19 21
2018-09-01	2	2nd	4 12 21 26 36
2018-08-25	7	3rd	2 9 12 19 34
2018-08-01	3	2nd	10 12 33 34 37
2018-07-21	8	1st	12 19 23 32 37
2018-06-23	2	2nd	4 12 23 28 38
2018-06-16	3	3rd	2 7 12 33 39
2018-06-06	2	3rd	4 5 12 13 39
2018-05-30	18	2nd	1 12 34 37 40
2018-03-28	5	1st	12 22 30 37 38
2018-03-10	10	2nd	2 12 20 28 41
2018-02-03	25	2nd	1 12 32 39 41
2017-11-08	1	1st	12 19 21 26 39
2017-11-04	6	2nd	1 12 15 21 35
2017-10-14	1	2nd	6 12 17 18 33
2017-10-11	16	2nd	3 12 30 33 39
2017-08-16	5	3rd	2 4 12 30 38
2017-07-29	5	2nd	11 12 14 20 30
2017-07-12	10	2nd	1 12 28 36 41
2017-06-07	1	3rd	4 8 12 16 22
2017-06-03	1	3rd	3 6 12 15 37
2017-05-31	4	3rd	10 11 12 21 22
2017-05-17	11	3rd	3 4 12 15 41
2017-04-08	2	1st	12 15 18 26 37
2017-04-01	11	2nd	6 12 22 23 41
2017-02-22	8	3rd	6 10 12 17 30
2017-01-25	5	1st	12 21 33 37 39
2017-01-07	4	2nd	5 12 21 33 40
2016-12-24	4	2nd	1 12 17 24 37
2016-12-10	2	2nd	1 12 20 29 39
2016-12-03	5	3rd	1 5 12 14 27
2016-11-16	8	2nd	11 12 13 19 41
2016-10-19	1	1st	12 15 26 28 31
2016-10-15	14	2nd	1 12 22 23 31
2016-08-27	9	2nd	6 12 18 34 40
2016-07-27	8	2nd	2 12 19 28 34
2016-06-29	15	1st	12 23 26 27 41
2016-05-07	3	2nd	1 12 13 22 38
2016-04-27	1	4th	2 9 11 12 37
2016-04-23	13	3rd	3 6 12 35 39
2016-03-09	11	1st	12 16 22 23 34
2016-01-30	3	2nd	8 12 33 38 39
2016-01-20	8	2nd	2 12 25 28 30
2015-12-23	4	1st	12 19 22 23 27
2015-12-09	4	4th	1 3 7 12 37
2015-11-25	1	4th	2 4 5 12 33
2015-11-21	6	2nd	9 12 15 31 39
2015-10-31	26	2nd	9 12 17 26 38
2015-08-01	1	4th	3 4 5 12 17
2015-07-29	9	2nd	8 12 18 26 33
2015-06-27	2	2nd	7 12 21 23 37
2015-06-20	8	2nd	2 12 22 27 33
2015-05-23	4	2nd	6 12 30 35 39
2015-05-09	11	2nd	1 12 30 32 38
2015-04-01	8	2nd	1 12 16 29 34
2015-03-04	5	2nd	2 12 24 37 38
2015-02-14	3	3rd	8 9 12 27 29
2015-02-04	27	3rd	4 6 12 27 32
2014-11-01	3	3rd	10 11 12 24 39
2014-10-22	7	2nd	2 12 30 37 40
2014-09-27	11	2nd	9 12 24 36 37
2014-08-20	3	3rd	5 7 12 22 26
2014-08-09	2	2nd	3 12 15 24 26
2014-08-02	5	3rd	2 10 12 18 39
2014-07-16	5	4th	6 8 9 12 29
2014-06-28	8	2nd	9 12 23 25 28
2014-05-31	2	2nd	7 12 18 37 40
2014-05-24	32	2nd	2 12 29 34 35
2014-02-01	11	3rd	1 8 12 21 37
2013-12-25	5	2nd	11 12 16 22 28
2013-12-07	1	1st	12 17 19 21 25
2013-12-04	8	3rd	5 10 12 16 35
2013-11-06	5	5th	2 5 10 11 12
2013-10-19	11	4th	4 5 10 12 18
2013-09-11	2	1st	12 18 21 25 40
2013-09-04	2	2nd	10 12 21 30 35
2013-08-28	3	1st	12 15 16 21 36
2013-08-17	4	2nd	10 12 17 29 34
2013-08-03	34	1st	12 22 28 35 38
2013-04-06	7	2nd	8 12 18 21 32
2013-03-13	13	1st	12 19 21 24 30
2013-01-26	10	2nd	5 12 13 19 40
2012-12-22	1	1st	12 25 26 32 35
2012-12-19	1	1st	12 15 18 33 35
2012-12-15	4	2nd	6 12 19 22 41
2012-12-01	4	2nd	2 12 16 20 23
2012-11-17	15	3rd	2 11 12 27 33
2012-09-26	26	2nd	6 12 20 21 33
2012-06-23	18	1st	12 13 24 26 27
2012-04-21	28	1st	12 15 20 23 38
2012-01-14	17	1st	12 25 27 30 37
2011-11-16	2	3rd	3 8 12 16 32
2011-11-09	5	1st	12 17 20 28 34
2011-10-22	3	2nd	8 12 26 31 32
2011-10-12	10	2nd	4 12 23 30 36
2011-09-07	6	2nd	6 12 15 26 38
2011-08-17	14	2nd	2 12 13 16 39
2011-06-29	2	2nd	8 12 18 26 34
2011-06-22	1	3rd	5 11 12 33 36
2011-06-18	7	1st	12 20 26 27 41
2011-05-25	14	1st	12 17 20 27 34
2011-04-06	12	2nd	3 12 37 40 41
2011-02-23	14	1st	12 19 20 38 40
2011-01-05	1	1st	12 13 25 28 35
2011-01-01	6	1st	12 13 24 28 38
2010-12-11	10	2nd	1 12 13 29 40
2010-11-06	5	2nd	1 12 19 26 31
2010-10-20	5	2nd	6 12 21 26 33
2010-10-02	1	3rd	1 9 12 27 30
2010-09-29	10	2nd	6 12 19 24 28
2010-08-25	6	2nd	1 12 16 30 38
2010-08-04	6	3rd	8 9 12 20 35
2010-07-14	2	2nd	3 12 14 31 33
2010-07-07	7	4th	1 6 9 12 21
2010-06-12	—	1st	12 14 32 36 41