Number 16

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/0 · Apr 2022 – Apr 2023 rules — 104 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

15times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.69σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 88% for any number

7.2average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

22longest completed wait · 61% chance of one at least that long

16 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 15 times in 104 draws against 12.7 expected, +0.69σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 16, draw by draw

Drawn 15 times in 104 draws · average wait 7.2 draws · longest completed wait 22 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest4 · chance 2.1
2nd smallest5 · chance 5.7
3rd smallest4 · chance 5.2
4th smallest2 · chance 1.9
5th smallest0 · chance 0.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

3 6 18 1 20 22

Never drawn alongside 11 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-04-15	15	3rd	3 14 16 18 36
2023-02-22	16	4th	2 6 8 16 40
2022-12-28	2	3rd	1 5 16 18 35
2022-12-21	2	3rd	6

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.