Number 18

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 · Apr 2010 – Apr 2022 rules — 1,257 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

153times drawn · chance expected 153 −0.03σ

10draws waiting · a wait this long: 31% for any number

8.2average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

39longest completed wait · 66% chance of one at least that long

18 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 153 times in 1,257 draws against 153.3 expected, −0.03σ. Each draw is independent: after 10 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 18, draw by draw

Drawn 153 times in 1,257 draws · average wait 8.2 draws · longest completed wait 39 · waiting 10 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 18 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest11 · chance 14.8
2nd smallest47 · chance 50.4
3rd smallest65 · chance 57.6
4th smallest22 · chance 26.2
5th smallest8 · chance 4.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

33 4 38 28 13 26

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 18 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 18 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-03-19	1	3rd	8 10 18 30 33
2022-03-16	4	2nd	7 18 20 29 33
2022-03-02	5	3rd	4 8 18 23 38
2022-02-12	7	2nd	6

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 18 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.

2020-06-20	3	3rd	5 9 18 22 36
2020-06-10	8	4th	1 12 13 18 38
2020-05-13	5	2nd	8 18 23 24 38
2020-04-25	21	3rd	1 17 18 26 38
2020-02-12	4	4th	8 10 13 18 25
2020-01-29	1	3rd	12 13 18 21 33
2020-01-25	15	1st	18 19 22 36 37
2019-12-04	7	3rd	1 6 18 23 38
2019-11-09	12	3rd	4 12 18 28 38
2019-09-28	19	3rd	4 13 18 27 30
2019-07-24	6	2nd	5 18 32 33 36
2019-07-03	13	5th	9 11 12 14 18
2019-05-18	14	3rd	12 16 18 26 32
2019-03-30	12	3rd	2 5 18 19 26
2019-02-16	3	2nd	10 18 33 37 38
2019-02-06	16	1st	18 26 29 31 33
2018-12-12	4	3rd	11 12 18 21 33
2018-11-28	2	1st	18 21 29 36 40
2018-11-21	15	4th	3 7 16 18 25
2018-09-29	9	3rd	4 11 18 28 34
2018-08-29	17	3rd	5 13 18 35 41
2018-06-30	10	2nd	10 18 24 38 41
2018-05-26	3	3rd	4 7 18 31 35
2018-05-16	5	2nd	3 18 20 25 31
2018-04-28	17	3rd	10 16 18 26 31
2018-02-28	2	3rd	3 4 18 30 39
2018-02-21	2	1st	18 27 28 37 39
2018-02-14	20	2nd	16 18 23 32 33
2017-12-06	5	3rd	8 11 18 28 32
2017-11-18	10	3rd	15 16 18 27 37
2017-10-14	7	4th	6 12 17 18 33
2017-09-20	14	4th	4 11 13 18 30
2017-08-02	11	3rd	9 16 18 30 34
2017-06-24	1	2nd	8 18 28 37 38
2017-06-21	1	2nd	11 18 21 34 38
2017-06-17	20	3rd	10 16 18 23 37
2017-04-08	39	3rd	12 15 18 26 37
2016-11-23	1	3rd	8 9 18 25 33
2016-11-19	7	3rd	10 16 18 26 40
2016-10-26	4	4th	1 7 11 18 40
2016-10-12	9	3rd	8 13 18 19 32
2016-09-10	4	2nd	17 18 21 23 26
2016-08-27	8	3rd	6 12 18 34 40
2016-07-30	29	3rd	7 16 18 36 40
2016-04-20	4	2nd	14 18 26 35 37
2016-04-06	28	5th	2 3 8 16 18
2015-12-30	3	3rd	10 11 18 34 41
2015-12-19	2	2nd	15 18 22 31 38
2015-12-12	9	2nd	4 18 19 30 33
2015-11-11	28	3rd	3 17 18 28 40
2015-08-05	2	2nd	14 18 20 37 39
2015-07-29	2	3rd	8 12 18 26 33
2015-07-22	1	3rd	2 17 18 30 32
2015-07-18	1	2nd	14 18 22 26 39
2015-07-15	21	3rd	7 10 18 20 32
2015-05-02	2	1st	18 19 20 31 38
2015-04-25	24	1st	18 22 24 26 28
2015-01-31	20	4th	3 5 13 18 41
2014-11-22	14	4th	2 4 15 18 34
2014-10-04	15	3rd	9 17 18 27 38
2014-08-13	2	1st	18 19 22 32 34
2014-08-06	1	2nd	5 18 28 38 40
2014-08-02	2	4th	2 10 12 18 39
2014-07-26	7	2nd	8 18 19 20 34
2014-07-02	2	2nd	4 18 19 21 26
2014-06-25	7	2nd	6 18 23 35 39
2014-05-31	8	3rd	7 12 18 37 40
2014-05-03	10	2nd	10 18 19 24 40
2014-03-29	3	3rd	2 17 18 25 39
2014-03-19	8	2nd	10 18 19 34 38
2014-02-19	2	4th	4 11 17 18 28
2014-02-12	32	4th	1 4 5 18 41
2013-10-23	1	3rd	3 13 18 24 25
2013-10-19	1	5th	4 5 10 12 18
2013-10-16	9	2nd	15 18 35 36 40
2013-09-14	1	3rd	13 17 18 23 35
2013-09-11	8	2nd	12 18 21 25 40
2013-08-14	13	3rd	4 11 18 28 29
2013-06-29	3	4th	10 13 15 18 36
2013-06-19	5	2nd	3 18 19 22 31
2013-06-01	2	2nd	13 18 21 22 25
2013-05-25	8	1st	18 21 23 28 38
2013-04-27	2	3rd	7 10 18 19 24
2013-04-20	4	2nd	5 18 23 27 31
2013-04-06	2	3rd	8 12 18 21 32
2013-03-30	4	4th	1 4 14 18 27
2013-03-16	2	2nd	16 18 30 31 40
2013-03-09	7	5th	4 6 11 15 18
2013-02-13	1	3rd	2 14 18 26 30
2013-02-09	5	2nd	9 18 25 29 36
2013-01-23	10	4th	7 13 17 18 28
2012-12-19	11	3rd	12 15 18 33 35
2012-11-10	32	2nd	17 18 28 36 37
2012-07-18	4	2nd	6 18 19 34 37
2012-07-04	1	2nd	4 18 22 24 38
2012-06-30	9	2nd	16 18 20 22 36
2012-05-30	2	2nd	13 18 23 33 37
2012-05-23	7	2nd	11 18 33 38 40
2012-04-28	13	3rd	6 13 18 29 40
2012-03-14	2	1st	18 30 34 35 36
2012-03-07	14	5th	4 6 7 13 18
2012-01-18	9	3rd	13 17 18 19 26
2011-12-17	2	3rd	16 17 18 28 41
2011-12-10	3	3rd	7 13 18 22 34
2011-11-30	13	1st	18 21 30 31 35
2011-10-15	4	5th	1 2 3 17 18
2011-10-01	3	2nd	17 18 22 28 33
2011-09-21	8	2nd	3 18 22 28 34
2011-08-24	5	4th	3 9 15 18 32
2011-08-06	5	2nd	4 18 21 24 28
2011-07-20	6	3rd	5 11 18 25 33
2011-06-29	1	3rd	8 12 18 26 34
2011-06-25	8	5th	2 7 15 17 18
2011-05-28	5	3rd	3 15 18 29 41
2011-05-11	1	2nd	7 18 21 26 33
2011-05-07	1	4th	1 4 9 18 30
2011-05-04	9	4th	5 10 11 18 34
2011-04-02	12	3rd	7 10 18 27 34
2011-02-19	2	4th	4 7 11 18 25
2011-02-12	3	4th	1 4 16 18 38
2011-02-02	6	3rd	7 15 18 26 30
2011-01-12	16	3rd	3 16 18 39 40
2010-11-17	22	3rd	11 17 18 26 41
2010-09-01	11	3rd	8 17 18 31 35
2010-07-24	21	3rd	6 15 18 20 38
2010-05-12	1	4th	2 11 15 18 23
2010-05-08	4	3rd	6 16 18 25 38
2010-04-24	2	3rd	1 14 18 27 32
2010-04-17	—	2nd	14 18 28 29 33