Number 16

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 · Apr 2010 – Apr 2022 rules — 1,257 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

152times drawn · chance expected 153 −0.11σ

22draws waiting · a wait this long: 7% for any number

8.2average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

53longest completed wait · 16% chance of one at least that long

16 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 152 times in 1,257 draws against 153.3 expected, −0.11σ. Each draw is independent: after 22 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 16, draw by draw

Drawn 152 times in 1,257 draws · average wait 8.2 draws · longest completed wait 53 · waiting 22 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest29 · chance 21.0
2nd smallest65 · chance 57.4
3rd smallest41 · chance 52.4
4th smallest16 · chance 18.9
5th smallest1 · chance 2.3

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

21 25 29 30 3 18

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-02-05	5	1st	16 21 24 27 34
2022-01-19	5	2nd	1 16 18 35 40
2022-01-01	11	2nd	1 16 21 26 31
2021-11-24	2	2nd	4

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.

2020-10-28	2	3rd	2 9 16 27 30
2020-10-21	4	2nd	4 16 26 36 40
2020-10-07	6	2nd	6 16 25 39 41
2020-09-16	4	1st	16 20 27 29 35
2020-09-02	6	3rd	3 15 16 21 33
2020-08-12	9	3rd	2 14 16 21 35
2020-07-11	28	2nd	5 16 28 29 31
2020-04-04	6	3rd	1 11 16 22 30
2020-03-14	6	1st	16 19 21 27 36
2020-02-22	40	2nd	10 16 21 22 34
2019-10-05	4	2nd	7 16 24 27 38
2019-09-21	19	2nd	11 16 17 20 41
2019-07-17	13	2nd	6 16 35 37 41
2019-06-01	4	2nd	8 16 20 29 40
2019-05-18	2	2nd	12 16 18 26 32
2019-05-11	1	3rd	7 14 16 20 36
2019-05-08	7	3rd	1 4 16 31 37
2019-04-13	6	3rd	6 15 16 25 34
2019-03-23	4	3rd	7 10 16 29 33
2019-03-09	4	1st	16 27 39 40 41
2019-02-23	20	2nd	13 16 27 34 36
2018-12-15	7	1st	16 26 28 29 30
2018-11-21	4	3rd	3 7 16 18 25
2018-11-07	2	2nd	13 16 22 26 27
2018-10-31	1	1st	16 22 23 31 38
2018-10-27	1	3rd	7 11 16 21 37
2018-10-24	2	2nd	5 16 23 27 28
2018-10-17	4	3rd	3 14 16 19 34
2018-10-03	7	4th	1 3 13 16 26
2018-09-08	6	2nd	8 16 24 40 41
2018-08-18	32	3rd	6 15 16 28 32
2018-04-28	7	2nd	10 16 18 26 31
2018-04-04	3	3rd	5 11 16 21 39
2018-03-24	3	2nd	11 16 19 30 31
2018-03-14	8	1st	16 17 21 31 38
2018-02-14	10	1st	16 18 23 32 33
2018-01-10	6	1st	16 19 29 34 40
2017-12-20	6	2nd	2 16 20 21 38
2017-11-29	3	4th	4 9 15 16 19
2017-11-18	2	2nd	15 16 18 27 37
2017-11-11	13	2nd	6 16 29 32 37
2017-09-27	4	3rd	1 15 16 17 27
2017-09-13	1	1st	16 21 24 25 35
2017-09-09	2	4th	3 8 13 16 25
2017-09-02	9	4th	4 9 15 16 40
2017-08-02	13	2nd	9 16 18 30 34
2017-06-17	3	2nd	10 16 18 23 37
2017-06-07	8	4th	4 8 12 16 22
2017-05-10	5	4th	3 8 9 16 37
2017-04-22	2	2nd	1 16 23 34 37
2017-04-15	21	2nd	9 16 29 31 36
2017-02-01	13	2nd	8 16 30 31 38
2016-12-17	5	2nd	1 16 23 25 27
2016-11-30	3	2nd	14 16 17 22 40
2016-11-19	6	2nd	10 16 18 26 40
2016-10-29	6	3rd	2 10 16 25 32
2016-10-08	11	2nd	15 16 19 26 40
2016-08-31	9	2nd	3 16 21 25 26
2016-07-30	8	2nd	7 16 18 36 40
2016-07-02	25	2nd	7 16 17 30 31
2016-04-06	5	4th	2 3 8 16 18
2016-03-19	3	1st	16 25 35 38 39
2016-03-09	1	2nd	12 16 22 23 34
2016-03-05	20	2nd	8 16 22 38 39
2015-12-26	3	1st	16 22 23 25 29
2015-12-16	12	3rd	3 15 16 25 41
2015-11-04	12	3rd	8 15 16 25 40
2015-09-23	9	2nd	6 16 29 33 40
2015-08-22	2	2nd	1 16 22 36 41
2015-08-15	18	2nd	14 16 20 30 38
2015-06-13	15	1st	16 17 20 21 28
2015-04-22	6	1st	16 26 28 30 39
2015-04-01	4	3rd	1 12 16 29 34
2015-03-18	1	2nd	5 16 20 29 30
2015-03-14	1	3rd	6 8 16 23 30
2015-03-11	3	3rd	4 6 16 33 39
2015-02-28	24	1st	16 17 22 23 28
2014-12-06	7	2nd	5 16 26 29 33
2014-11-12	1	2nd	1 16 17 37 39
2014-11-08	4	1st	16 26 27 30 39
2014-10-25	47	1st	16 21 27 29 33
2014-05-14	18	1st	16 21 27 36 38
2014-03-12	1	1st	16 19 31 37 39
2014-03-08	2	4th	2 3 14 16 21
2014-03-01	1	2nd	7 16 17 30 37
2014-02-26	13	4th	3 9 11 16 29
2014-01-11	1	3rd	1 7 16 25 41
2014-01-08	4	1st	16 22 25 34 37
2013-12-25	6	3rd	11 12 16 22 28
2013-12-04	3	4th	5 10 12 16 35
2013-11-23	3	1st	16 17 25 36 38
2013-11-13	4	2nd	13 16 19 34 35
2013-10-30	17	3rd	10 11 16 24 38
2013-08-31	1	3rd	4 10 16 26 33
2013-08-28	15	3rd	12 15 16 21 36
2013-07-06	6	2nd	10 16 24 29 37
2013-06-15	24	2nd	10 16 23 27 33
2013-03-23	2	4th	2 3 5 16 38
2013-03-16	12	1st	16 18 30 31 40
2013-02-02	1	2nd	4 16 19 20 29
2013-01-30	16	2nd	6 16 33 37 40
2012-12-05	1	2nd	5 16 23 26 40
2012-12-01	11	3rd	2 12 16 20 23
2012-10-24	14	3rd	3 8 16 23 26
2012-09-05	10	4th	5 9 11 16 19
2012-07-28	1	2nd	3 16 21 30 33
2012-07-25	7	2nd	7 16 24 30 38
2012-06-30	15	1st	16 18 20 22 36
2012-05-09	28	2nd	2 16 32 40 41
2012-02-01	1	3rd	4 5 16 25 41
2012-01-28	12	2nd	1 16 24 25 39
2011-12-17	3	1st	16 17 18 28 41
2011-12-07	6	5th	3 7 11 14 16
2011-11-16	5	4th	3 8 12 16 32
2011-10-29	7	2nd	2 16 29 30 33
2011-10-05	14	2nd	2 16 21 29 33
2011-08-17	53	4th	2 12 13 16 39
2011-02-12	1	3rd	1 4 16 18 38
2011-02-09	8	3rd	8 10 16 36 41
2011-01-12	18	2nd	3 16 18 39 40
2010-11-10	9	3rd	1 3 16 21 39
2010-10-09	13	3rd	4 5 16 23 33
2010-08-25	1	3rd	1 12 16 30 38
2010-08-21	9	3rd	6 10 16 21 24
2010-07-21	6	3rd	5 8 16 33 34
2010-06-30	15	1st	16 22 28 31 36
2010-05-08	9	2nd	6 16 18 25 38
2010-04-07	—	3rd	3 8 16 32 37