Number 30

In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 · Apr 2010 – Apr 2022 rules — 1,257 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

156times drawn · chance expected 153 +0.23σ

9draws waiting · a wait this long: 35% for any number

8.0average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

46longest completed wait · 36% chance of one at least that long

30 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 156 times in 1,257 draws against 153.3 expected, +0.23σ. Each draw is independent: after 9 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 30, draw by draw

Drawn 156 times in 1,257 draws · average wait 8.0 draws · longest completed wait 46 · waiting 9 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.6
2nd smallest8 · chance 8.2
3rd smallest34 · chance 38.1
4th smallest77 · chance 68.6
5th smallest37 · chance 40.5

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

27 31 2 11 1 4

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 30 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-03-23	1	5th	4 7 8 9 30
2022-03-19	7	4th	8 10 18 30 33
2022-02-23	1	3rd	6 19 30 34 38
2022-02-19	15	4th	22

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.

2020-04-04	2	5th	1 11 16 22 30
2020-03-28	23	4th	5 6 8 30 31
2020-01-08	6	4th	2 14 28 30 32
2019-12-18	3	5th	2 4 8 17 30
2019-12-07	6	4th	2 20 22 30 33
2019-11-16	14	3rd	1 17 30 32 37
2019-09-28	17	5th	4 13 18 27 30
2019-07-31	10	4th	3 14 29 30 33
2019-06-26	4	5th	2 6 26 29 30
2019-06-12	12	3rd	12 20 30 39 40
2019-05-01	25	4th	2 7 28 30 34
2019-02-02	9	3rd	4 17 30 34 35
2019-01-02	5	4th	1 17 19 30 37
2018-12-15	3	5th	16 26 28 29 30
2018-12-05	46	4th	1 3 20 30 36
2018-06-27	18	4th	5 19 21 30 37
2018-04-25	8	4th	13 17 19 30 35
2018-03-28	1	3rd	12 22 30 37 38
2018-03-24	7	4th	11 16 19 30 31
2018-02-28	37	4th	3 4 18 30 39
2017-10-21	3	3rd	7 29 30 38 39
2017-10-11	6	3rd	3 12 30 33 39
2017-09-20	6	5th	4 11 13 18 30
2017-08-30	4	4th	2 19 27 30 41
2017-08-16	1	4th	2 4 12 30 38
2017-08-12	3	4th	20 21 29 30 33
2017-08-02	1	4th	9 16 18 30 34
2017-07-29	9	5th	11 12 14 20 30
2017-06-28	16	4th	4 26 27 30 31
2017-05-03	6	4th	1 22 24 30 41
2017-04-12	8	4th	8 9 27 30 33
2017-03-15	6	5th	11 22 27 28 30
2017-02-22	5	5th	6 10 12 17 30
2017-02-04	1	4th	9 22 24 30 31
2017-02-01	4	3rd	8 16 30 31 38
2017-01-18	42	4th	1 13 26 30 40
2016-08-24	2	4th	11 22 25 30 31
2016-08-17	1	3rd	15 24 30 36 38
2016-08-13	3	4th	6 27 28 30 38
2016-08-03	9	4th	3 9 20 30 33
2016-07-02	5	4th	7 16 17 30 31
2016-06-15	4	4th	7 9 11 30 37
2016-06-01	4	4th	2 9 24 30 37
2016-05-18	16	5th	9 22 24 27 30
2016-03-23	16	3rd	15 21 30 38 41
2016-01-27	2	3rd	2 15 30 33 35
2016-01-20	11	5th	2 12 25 28 30
2015-12-12	3	4th	4 18 19 30 33
2015-12-02	1	5th	2 13 14 22 30
2015-11-28	6	4th	10 15 27 30 37
2015-11-07	3	5th	1 4 6 23 30
2015-10-28	16	5th	4 14 20 26 30
2015-09-02	4	3rd	13 27 30 32 37
2015-08-19	1	4th	4 7 14 30 31
2015-08-15	7	4th	14 16 20 30 38
2015-07-22	12	4th	2 17 18 30 32
2015-06-10	5	3rd	21 22 30 31 34
2015-05-23	4	3rd	6 12 30 35 39
2015-05-09	5	3rd	1 12 30 32 38
2015-04-22	5	4th	16 26 28 30 39
2015-04-04	2	3rd	9 22 30 34 37
2015-03-28	3	5th	17 19 25 27 30
2015-03-18	1	5th	5 16 20 29 30
2015-03-14	22	5th	6 8 16 23 30
2014-12-27	3	4th	4 6 26 30 40
2014-12-17	11	2nd	8 30 31 32 33
2014-11-08	1	4th	16 26 27 30 39
2014-11-05	4	2nd	15 30 38 39 40
2014-10-22	6	3rd	2 12 30 37 40
2014-10-01	4	5th	11 21 26 27 30
2014-09-17	1	2nd	1 30 33 35 36
2014-09-13	1	2nd	11 30 31 39 40
2014-09-10	17	5th	4 5 23 29 30
2014-07-12	11	3rd	10 26 30 40 41
2014-06-04	17	4th	2 26 29 30 40
2014-04-05	10	3rd	14 21 30 37 38
2014-03-01	6	4th	7 16 17 30 37
2014-02-08	15	4th	7 9 15 30 31
2013-12-18	9	4th	6 11 20 30 31
2013-11-16	15	3rd	24 26 30 31 39
2013-09-25	6	2nd	5 30 31 33 36
2013-09-04	11	4th	10 12 21 30 35
2013-07-27	4	4th	9 11 19 30 40
2013-07-13	1	4th	10 21 22 30 37
2013-07-10	15	4th	5 19 29 30 39
2013-05-18	18	5th	4 14 20 28 30
2013-03-16	1	3rd	16 18 30 31 40
2013-03-13	8	5th	12 19 21 24 30
2013-02-13	29	5th	2 14 18 26 30
2012-11-03	5	5th	7 13 21 22 30
2012-10-17	11	3rd	5 9 30 33 40
2012-09-08	4	4th	15 23 26 30 32
2012-08-25	3	5th	14 19 23 29 30
2012-08-15	4	4th	6 19 27 30 33
2012-07-28	1	4th	3 16 21 30 33
2012-07-25	5	4th	7 16 24 30 38
2012-07-07	7	4th	2 13 25 30 32
2012-06-13	8	4th	5 8 29 30 36
2012-05-16	8	4th	1 13 26 30 36
2012-04-18	1	5th	1 8 21 25 30
2012-04-14	7	4th	1 11 19 30 32
2012-03-21	2	4th	5 6 19 30 41
2012-03-14	11	2nd	18 30 34 35 36
2012-02-04	6	3rd	14 29 30 34 35
2012-01-14	4	4th	12 25 27 30 37
2011-12-31	9	5th	3 5 6 19 30
2011-11-30	9	3rd	18 21 30 31 35
2011-10-29	1	4th	2 16 29 30 33
2011-10-26	2	3rd	10 20 30 31 33
2011-10-19	2	4th	1 4 23 30 39
2011-10-12	1	4th	4 12 23 30 36
2011-10-08	6	5th	8 9 24 28 30
2011-09-17	15	4th	8 15 22 30 32
2011-07-27	5	5th	8 11 23 29 30
2011-07-09	18	4th	5 11 27 30 35
2011-05-07	17	5th	1 4 9 18 30
2011-03-09	10	4th	2 9 25 30 35
2011-02-02	4	5th	7 15 18 26 30
2011-01-19	3	3rd	4 27 30 39 41
2011-01-08	7	3rd	14 27 30 32 37
2010-12-15	5	4th	1 8 28 30 37
2010-11-27	1	3rd	22 23 30 31 34
2010-11-24	1	4th	3 17 28 30 36
2010-11-20	6	3rd	1 22 30 35 40
2010-10-30	8	2nd	22 30 31 34 38
2010-10-02	7	5th	1 9 12 27 30
2010-09-08	4	3rd	6 29 30 34 35
2010-08-25	4	4th	1 12 16 30 38
2010-08-11	4	5th	11 24 27 29 30
2010-07-28	9	2nd	13 30 31 34 41
2010-06-26	22	4th	20 27 28 30 38
2010-04-10	—	4th	17 27 29 30 38