Number 16

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

12times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.38σ

12draws waiting · a wait this long: 31% for any number

10.5average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

31longest completed wait · 38% chance of one at least that long

16 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 12 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, −0.38σ. Each draw is independent: after 12 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 16, draw by draw

Drawn 12 times in 133 draws · average wait 10.5 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 12 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 2.6
2nd smallest6 · chance 5.1
3rd smallest5 · chance 3.3
4th smallest0 · chance 0.9
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

10 14 30 34 36 1

Never drawn alongside 21 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 18 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2014-07-11	14	3rd	3 10 16 35 45
2014-04-04	8	2nd	10 16 28 30 33
2014-02-07	5	1st	16 18 20 36 49
2014-01-03	13	2nd	1 16

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.