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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
Drawn 15 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, +0.49σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 15 times in 133 draws · average wait 9.1 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 5 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 37 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 16 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 14 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 37 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 37 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 37 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2013-12-20 | 20 | 4th | 912223740 |
| 2013-08-02 | 2 | 5th | 1423293337 |
| 2013-07-19 | 15 | 5th | 718193337 |
| 2013-04-05 | 1 | 3rd | 2231373841 |
| 2013-03-29 | 9 | 4th | 122273750 |
| 2013-01-25 | 2 | 4th | 413283738 |
| 2013-01-11 | 6 | 3rd | 631374149 |
| 2012-11-30 | 20 | 5th | 213212437 |
| 2012-07-13 | 6 | 5th | 812273137 |
| 2012-06-01 | 10 | 4th | 1128343738 |
| 2012-03-23 | — | 4th | 58213746 |