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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
Drawn 14 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, +0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 14 times in 133 draws · average wait 9.6 draws · longest completed wait 19 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 13 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 16 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 16 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 13 is picked about 0.92× as often as an indifferent choice — 31st most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 13 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 13 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2013-07-26 | 10 | 2nd | 413192543 |
| 2013-05-17 | 12 | 4th | 46101332 |
| 2013-02-22 | 4 | 2nd | 313414649 |
| 2013-01-25 | 1 | 2nd | 413283738 |
| 2013-01-18 | 6 | 2nd | 913212845 |
| 2012-12-07 | 1 | 1st | 1320222742 |
| 2012-11-30 | 19 | 2nd | 213212437 |
| 2012-07-20 | 4 | 3rd | 69131425 |
| 2012-06-22 | 8 | 1st | 1314164749 |
| 2012-04-27 | — | 2nd | 1013194045 |