Number 14

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

15times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.49σ

21draws waiting · a wait this long: 12% for any number

7.0average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

31longest completed wait · 45% chance of one at least that long

14 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 15 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, +0.49σ. Each draw is independent: after 21 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 14, draw by draw

Drawn 15 times in 133 draws · average wait 7.0 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 21 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 14 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest2 · chance 4.2
2nd smallest8 · chance 6.6
3rd smallest4 · chance 3.5
4th smallest1 · chance 0.7
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

16 23 43 1 5 6

Never drawn alongside 12 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 14 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 14 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 14 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2014-05-09	4	3rd	1 11 14 22 43
2014-04-11	5	3rd	1 7 14 22 44
2014-03-07	31	2nd	7 14 15 20 39
2013-08-02	6	1st	14 23

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 14 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.