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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
Drawn 12 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, −0.38σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 12 times in 133 draws · average wait 11.2 draws · longest completed wait 43 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 39 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 16 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 18 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 39 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 39 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 39 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2014-03-07 | 5 | 5th | 714152039 |
| 2014-01-31 | 10 | 4th | 1217293940 |
| 2013-11-22 | 4 | 3rd | 138394247 |
| 2013-10-25 | 43 | 3rd | 925394146 |
| 2012-12-28 | 2 | 5th | 58223239 |
| 2012-12-14 | 11 | 5th | 1728313539 |
| 2012-09-28 | 20 | 5th | 514163439 |
| 2012-05-11 | — | 4th | 1521383947 |