Number 15

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

13times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.09σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

10.4average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

42longest completed wait · 15% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 13 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, −0.09σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 13 times in 133 draws · average wait 10.4 draws · longest completed wait 42 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest4 · chance 3.2
2nd smallest4 · chance 5.6
3rd smallest5 · chance 3.3
4th smallest0 · chance 0.8
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

18 24 39 2 6 8

Never drawn alongside 18 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 17 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2014-10-03	8	2nd	8 15 34 44 49
2014-08-08	3	1st	15 19 21 34 40
2014-07-18	5	3rd	6 11 15 18 45
2014-06-13	14	3rd	1 8

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.