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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

LotteryOracle

LotteryOracle reports what happened; it does not predict what is next. Every draw is independent — no number is ever "due".

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Eurojackpot · every number

1

Number 1

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

Main numbersStars5/50 + 2/12 · since Mar 20225/50 + 2/10 · Oct 2014 – Mar 20225/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014
12times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.38σ
5draws waiting · a wait this long: 66% for any number
8.5average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
18longest completed wait · 87% chance of one at least that long
1 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 12 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, −0.38σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

1

Number 1, draw by draw

Drawn 12 times in 133 draws · average wait 8.5 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 5 draws now

1 draws: 2012-11-16 to 2012-11-2318 draws: 2012-11-23 to 2013-03-2911 draws: 2013-03-29 to 2013-06-1416 draws: 2013-06-14 to 2013-10-047 draws: 2013-10-04 to 2013-11-222 draws: 2013-11-22 to 2013-12-064 draws: 2013-12-06 to 2014-01-0314 draws: 2014-01-03 to 2014-04-114 draws: 2014-04-11 to 2014-05-095 draws: 2014-05-09 to 2014-06-1311 draws: 2014-06-13 to 2014-08-29Still waiting — at least 5 draws since 2014-08-292012-11-162012-11-232013-03-292013-06-142013-10-042013-11-222013-12-062014-01-032014-04-112014-05-092014-06-132014-08-292012-03-232014-10-03

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

1 draws: 1 time2 draws: 1 time3 draws: 0 times4 draws: 2 times5 draws: 1 time6 draws: 0 times7 draws: 1 time8 draws: 0 times9 draws: 0 times10 draws: 0 times11 draws: 2 times12 draws: 0 times13 draws: 0 times14 draws: 1 time15 draws: 0 times16 draws: 1 time17 draws: 0 times18 draws: 1 time19 draws: 0 times20 draws: 0 times21 draws: 0 times22 draws: 0 times23 draws: 0 times24 draws: 0 timesits own waitsdraws between appearances

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 1 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

  • 1st smallest12 · chance 12.0
  • 2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 3rd smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

7821223747

Never drawn alongside 21 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 18 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 1 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

  • Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
  • Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 1 →

Every draw it appeared in

DateWaitPositionThe draw
2014-08-29111st1891237
2014-06-1351st18151839
2014-05-0941st111142243
2014-04-11141st17
Lowest in the poolEvery numbernumber 2 →
What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 1 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.

14
22
44
2014-01-0341st116343637
2013-12-0621st18182547
2013-11-2271st138394247
2013-10-04161st17162148
2013-06-14111st125464748
2013-03-29181st122273750
2012-11-2311st121323650
2012-11-16—1st1472126