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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
Drawn 7 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, −1.82σ. Each draw is independent: after 48 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 7 times in 133 draws · average wait 13.5 draws · longest completed wait 21 · waiting 48 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 27 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 27 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 28 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 27 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 27 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 27 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2012-12-07 | 21 | 4th | 1320222742 |
| 2012-07-13 | 13 | 3rd | 812273137 |
| 2012-04-13 | — | 4th | 511122732 |