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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
Drawn 17 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, +1.07σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 17 times in 133 draws · average wait 8.0 draws · longest completed wait 26 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 32 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 32 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 32 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 32 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2013-11-29 | 2 | 3rd | 1725323545 |
| 2013-11-15 | 10 | 3rd | 319324348 |
| 2013-09-06 | 3 | 4th | 37203244 |
| 2013-08-16 | 1 | 2nd | 532333849 |
| 2013-08-09 | 12 | 3rd | 726323449 |
| 2013-05-17 | 5 | 5th | 46101332 |
| 2013-04-12 | 4 | 4th | 819223240 |
| 2013-03-15 | 4 | 3rd | 430324150 |
| 2013-02-15 | 7 | 4th | 49263240 |
| 2012-12-28 | 5 | 4th | 58223239 |
| 2012-11-23 | 26 | 3rd | 121323650 |
| 2012-05-25 | 6 | 4th | 411263241 |
| 2012-04-13 | — | 5th | 511122732 |