Number 12

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

14times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.20σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 66% for any number

9.7average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

29longest completed wait · 50% chance of one at least that long

12 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 14 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, +0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 12, draw by draw

Drawn 14 times in 133 draws · average wait 9.7 draws · longest completed wait 29 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 12 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest5 · chance 4.9
2nd smallest4 · chance 6.1
3rd smallest3 · chance 2.6
4th smallest2 · chance 0.4
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

5 40 43 9 27 37

Never drawn alongside 17 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 16 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 12 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 12 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2014-08-29	19	4th	1 8 9 12 37
2014-04-18	11	1st	12 32 40 44 49
2014-01-31	6	1st	12 17 29 39 40
2013-12-20	29	2nd	9 12

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 12 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.