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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

LotteryOracle

LotteryOracle reports what happened; it does not predict what is next. Every draw is independent — no number is ever "due".

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Lotto · every number

1

Number 1

In Lotto under the 6/45 + 1/45 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2015 rules — 601 draws, 6 from 1–45 (an earlier era).

6/47 + 1/47 · since Oct 20156/45 + 1/45 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2015
80times drawn · chance expected 80 −0.02σ
0draws waiting — it came up last time
7.6average wait between appearances · chance says 7.5
36longest completed wait · 41% chance of one at least that long
1 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 80 times in 601 draws against 80.1 expected, −0.02σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 18 times, counted separately.

1

Number 1, draw by draw

Drawn 80 times in 601 draws · average wait 7.6 draws · longest completed wait 36 · drawn in the most recent draw

19 draws: 2010-01-06 to 2010-03-131 draws: 2010-03-13 to 2010-03-1736 draws: 2010-03-17 to 2010-07-214 draws: 2010-07-21 to 2010-08-041 draws: 2010-08-04 to 2010-08-073 draws: 2010-08-07 to 2010-08-182 draws: 2010-08-18 to 2010-08-2511 draws: 2010-08-25 to 2010-10-024 draws: 2010-10-02 to 2010-10-1616 draws: 2010-10-16 to 2010-12-1115 draws: 2010-12-11 to 2011-02-027 draws: 2011-02-02 to 2011-02-262 draws: 2011-02-26 to 2011-03-051 draws: 2011-03-05 to 2011-03-094 draws: 2011-03-09 to 2011-03-233 draws: 2011-03-23 to 2011-04-0216 draws: 2011-04-02 to 2011-05-289 draws: 2011-05-28 to 2011-06-297 draws: 2011-06-29 to 2011-07-238 draws: 2011-07-23 to 2011-08-205 draws: 2011-08-20 to 2011-09-071 draws: 2011-09-07 to 2011-09-103 draws: 2011-09-10 to 2011-09-213 draws: 2011-09-21 to 2011-10-0110 draws: 2011-10-01 to 2011-11-0511 draws: 2011-11-05 to 2011-12-147 draws: 2011-12-14 to 2012-01-075 draws: 2012-01-07 to 2012-01-254 draws: 2012-01-25 to 2012-02-081 draws: 2012-02-08 to 2012-02-111 draws: 2012-02-11 to 2012-02-156 draws: 2012-02-15 to 2012-03-075 draws: 2012-03-07 to 2012-03-244 draws: 2012-03-24 to 2012-04-0712 draws: 2012-04-07 to 2012-05-1911 draws: 2012-05-19 to 2012-06-274 draws: 2012-06-27 to 2012-07-116 draws: 2012-07-11 to 2012-08-019 draws: 2012-08-01 to 2012-09-0110 draws: 2012-09-01 to 2012-10-061 draws: 2012-10-06 to 2012-10-104 draws: 2012-10-10 to 2012-10-2418 draws: 2012-10-24 to 2012-12-261 draws: 2012-12-26 to 2012-12-2915 draws: 2012-12-29 to 2013-02-2013 draws: 2013-02-20 to 2013-04-062 draws: 2013-04-06 to 2013-04-1316 draws: 2013-04-13 to 2013-06-082 draws: 2013-06-08 to 2013-06-1520 draws: 2013-06-15 to 2013-08-242 draws: 2013-08-24 to 2013-08-317 draws: 2013-08-31 to 2013-09-255 draws: 2013-09-25 to 2013-10-126 draws: 2013-10-12 to 2013-11-026 draws: 2013-11-02 to 2013-11-231 draws: 2013-11-23 to 2013-11-276 draws: 2013-11-27 to 2013-12-181 draws: 2013-12-18 to 2013-12-211 draws: 2013-12-21 to 2013-12-269 draws: 2013-12-26 to 2014-01-257 draws: 2014-01-25 to 2014-02-1913 draws: 2014-02-19 to 2014-04-0522 draws: 2014-04-05 to 2014-06-212 draws: 2014-06-21 to 2014-06-285 draws: 2014-06-28 to 2014-07-161 draws: 2014-07-16 to 2014-07-1927 draws: 2014-07-19 to 2014-10-225 draws: 2014-10-22 to 2014-11-084 draws: 2014-11-08 to 2014-11-228 draws: 2014-11-22 to 2014-12-2010 draws: 2014-12-20 to 2015-01-2417 draws: 2015-01-24 to 2015-03-252 draws: 2015-03-25 to 2015-04-014 draws: 2015-04-01 to 2015-04-155 draws: 2015-04-15 to 2015-05-0216 draws: 2015-05-02 to 2015-06-274 draws: 2015-06-27 to 2015-07-1113 draws: 2015-07-11 to 2015-08-2611 draws: 2015-08-26 to 2015-10-032010-01-062010-03-132010-03-172010-07-212010-08-042010-08-072010-08-182010-08-252010-10-022010-10-162010-12-112011-02-022011-02-262011-03-052011-03-092011-03-232011-04-022011-05-282011-06-292011-07-232011-08-202011-09-072011-09-102011-09-212011-10-012011-11-052011-12-142012-01-072012-01-252012-02-082012-02-112012-02-152012-03-072012-03-242012-04-072012-05-192012-06-272012-07-112012-08-012012-09-012012-10-062012-10-102012-10-242012-12-262012-12-292013-02-202013-04-062013-04-132013-06-082013-06-152013-08-242013-08-312013-09-252013-10-122013-11-022013-11-232013-11-272013-12-182013-12-212013-12-262014-01-252014-02-192014-04-052014-06-212014-06-282014-07-162014-07-192014-10-222014-11-082014-11-222014-12-202015-01-242015-03-252015-04-012015-04-152015-05-022015-06-272015-07-112015-08-262015-10-032010-01-022015-10-03

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

1 draws: 12 times2 draws: 7 times3 draws: 4 times4 draws: 10 times5 draws: 7 times6 draws: 5 times7 draws: 5 times8 draws: 2 times9 draws: 3 times10 draws: 3 times11 draws: 4 times12 draws: 1 time13 draws: 3 times14 draws: 0 times15 draws: 2 times16 draws: 4 times17 draws: 1 time18 draws: 1 time19 draws: 1 time20 draws: 1 time21 draws: 0 times22 draws: 1 time23 draws: 0 times24 draws: 0 times25 draws: 0 times26 draws: 0 times27 draws: 1 time28 draws: 0 times29 draws: 0 times30 draws: 0 times31 draws: 0 times32 draws: 0 times33 draws: 0 times34 draws: 0 times35 draws: 0 times36 draws: 1 time37 draws: 0 timesits own waitsdraws between appearances

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 1 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

  • 1st smallest80 · chance 80.0
  • 2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 3rd smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 5th smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 9.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

15242372034

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 1 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

  • Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
  • Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 1 →

Every draw it appeared in

DateWaitPositionThe draw
2015-10-03111st11517313645
2015-08-26131st1521243042
2015-07-1141st12024253738
2015-06-27161st
Lowest in the poolEvery numbernumber 2 →
What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 1 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

1
2
7
22
35
45
2015-05-0251st1718283036
2015-04-1541st11517213033
2015-04-0121st11723293044
2015-03-25171st11229343941
2015-01-24101st1912384344
2014-12-2081st1612212345
2014-11-2241st1618192644
2014-11-0851st1717283436
2014-10-22271st1713324042
2014-07-1911st12022232945
2014-07-1651st11215232429
2014-06-2821st1529313437
2014-06-21221st1916173445
2014-04-05131st178144145
2014-02-1971st1624334344
2014-01-2591st1410203045
2013-12-2611st11315222437
2013-12-2111st126253042
2013-12-1861st1632374143
2013-11-2711st11415232744
The other 56 appearances
2013-11-2361st138111434
2013-11-0261st1720253345
2013-10-1251st11015212240
2013-09-2571st11034364142
2013-08-3121st168153839
2013-08-24201st1223242629
2013-06-1521st168152628
2013-06-08161st1410131417
2013-04-1321st11520274142
2013-04-06131st11216262729
2013-02-20151st1312192337
2012-12-2911st1815252944
2012-12-26181st11624294144
2012-10-2441st11114161823
2012-10-1011st11017184344
2012-10-06101st11822263540
2012-09-0191st169151844
2012-08-0161st1515222539
2012-07-1141st13472734
2012-06-27111st11722234043
2012-05-19121st1517223543
2012-04-0741st1815192636
2012-03-2451st1320313438
2012-03-0761st1218303436
2012-02-1511st168101314
2012-02-1111st1815192333
2012-02-0841st157203140
2012-01-2551st11113141537
2012-01-0771st127152027
2011-12-14111st11012272945
2011-11-05101st1415162933
2011-10-0131st1520384042
2011-09-2131st1916222344
2011-09-1011st11032353945
2011-09-0751st1210122736
2011-08-2081st11329344243
2011-07-2371st1714233134
2011-06-2991st167161741
2011-05-28161st11316172022
2011-04-0231st11216223842
2011-03-2341st126143142
2011-03-0911st11526323341
2011-03-0521st1815212425
2011-02-2671st1620273540
2011-02-02151st1214242530
2010-12-11161st1724313338
2010-10-1641st11315244045
2010-10-02111st1324323345
2010-08-2521st1720243940
2010-08-1831st1420313443
2010-08-0711st12332404344
2010-08-0441st1815242738
2010-07-21361st11123353943
2010-03-1711st12426273233
2010-03-13191st11924273539
2010-01-06—1st1210153234