Lotto · every number
21
Number 21 In Lotto under the 6/45 + 1/45 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2015 rules — 601 draws, 6 from 1–45 (an earlier era).
6/47 + 1/47 · since Oct 2015 6/45 + 1/45 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2015 84 times drawn · chance expected 80 +0.46σ
7 draws waiting · a wait this long: 42% for any number
7.1 average wait between appearances · chance says 7.5
31 longest completed wait · 68% chance of one at least that long
21 is drawn as often as chance explains Drawn 84 times in 601 draws against 80.1 expected, +0.46σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 20 times, counted separately.
21 Number 21, draw by draw Drawn 84 times in 601 draws · average wait 7.1 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 7 draws now
8 draws: 2010-01-20 to 2010-02-17 3 draws: 2010-02-17 to 2010-02-27 9 draws: 2010-02-27 to 2010-03-31 13 draws: 2010-03-31 to 2010-05-15 2 draws: 2010-05-15 to 2010-05-22 9 draws: 2010-05-22 to 2010-06-23 10 draws: 2010-06-23 to 2010-07-28 1 draws: 2010-07-28 to 2010-07-31 4 draws: 2010-07-31 to 2010-08-14 8 draws: 2010-08-14 to 2010-09-11 20 draws: 2010-09-11 to 2010-11-20 10 draws: 2010-11-20 to 2010-12-24 3 draws: 2010-12-24 to 2011-01-05 7 draws: 2011-01-05 to 2011-01-29 10 draws: 2011-01-29 to 2011-03-05 2 draws: 2011-03-05 to 2011-03-12 4 draws: 2011-03-12 to 2011-03-26 11 draws: 2011-03-26 to 2011-05-04 10 draws: 2011-05-04 to 2011-06-08 11 draws: 2011-06-08 to 2011-07-16 5 draws: 2011-07-16 to 2011-08-03 1 draws: 2011-08-03 to 2011-08-06 8 draws: 2011-08-06 to 2011-09-03 13 draws: 2011-09-03 to 2011-10-19 1 draws: 2011-10-19 to 2011-10-22 1 draws: 2011-10-22 to 2011-10-26 1 draws: 2011-10-26 to 2011-10-29 10 draws: 2011-10-29 to 2011-12-03 31 draws: 2011-12-03 to 2012-03-21 13 draws: 2012-03-21 to 2012-05-05 1 draws: 2012-05-05 to 2012-05-09 1 draws: 2012-05-09 to 2012-05-12 4 draws: 2012-05-12 to 2012-05-26 11 draws: 2012-05-26 to 2012-07-04 1 draws: 2012-07-04 to 2012-07-07 9 draws: 2012-07-07 to 2012-08-08 12 draws: 2012-08-08 to 2012-09-19 7 draws: 2012-09-19 to 2012-10-13 27 draws: 2012-10-13 to 2013-01-16 2 draws: 2013-01-16 to 2013-01-23 1 draws: 2013-01-23 to 2013-01-26 9 draws: 2013-01-26 to 2013-02-27 18 draws: 2013-02-27 to 2013-05-01 1 draws: 2013-05-01 to 2013-05-04 2 draws: 2013-05-04 to 2013-05-11 4 draws: 2013-05-11 to 2013-05-25 5 draws: 2013-05-25 to 2013-06-12 20 draws: 2013-06-12 to 2013-08-21 12 draws: 2013-08-21 to 2013-10-02 3 draws: 2013-10-02 to 2013-10-12 16 draws: 2013-10-12 to 2013-12-07 12 draws: 2013-12-07 to 2014-01-18 1 draws: 2014-01-18 to 2014-01-22 2 draws: 2014-01-22 to 2014-01-29 4 draws: 2014-01-29 to 2014-02-12 1 draws: 2014-02-12 to 2014-02-15 2 draws: 2014-02-15 to 2014-02-22 9 draws: 2014-02-22 to 2014-03-26 1 draws: 2014-03-26 to 2014-03-29 16 draws: 2014-03-29 to 2014-05-24 7 draws: 2014-05-24 to 2014-06-18 15 draws: 2014-06-18 to 2014-08-09 1 draws: 2014-08-09 to 2014-08-13 2 draws: 2014-08-13 to 2014-08-20 5 draws: 2014-08-20 to 2014-09-06 7 draws: 2014-09-06 to 2014-10-01 3 draws: 2014-10-01 to 2014-10-11 17 draws: 2014-10-11 to 2014-12-10 3 draws: 2014-12-10 to 2014-12-20 1 draws: 2014-12-20 to 2014-12-24 3 draws: 2014-12-24 to 2015-01-03 7 draws: 2015-01-03 to 2015-01-28 4 draws: 2015-01-28 to 2015-02-11 7 draws: 2015-02-11 to 2015-03-07 1 draws: 2015-03-07 to 2015-03-11 2 draws: 2015-03-11 to 2015-03-18 8 draws: 2015-03-18 to 2015-04-15 11 draws: 2015-04-15 to 2015-05-23 5 draws: 2015-05-23 to 2015-06-10 8 draws: 2015-06-10 to 2015-07-08 10 draws: 2015-07-08 to 2015-08-12 4 draws: 2015-08-12 to 2015-08-26 4 draws: 2015-08-26 to 2015-09-09 Still waiting — at least 7 draws since 2015-09-09 2010-01-20 2010-02-17 2010-02-27 2010-03-31 2010-05-15 2010-05-22 2010-06-23 2010-07-28 2010-07-31 2010-08-14 2010-09-11 2010-11-20 2010-12-24 2011-01-05 2011-01-29 2011-03-05 2011-03-12 2011-03-26 2011-05-04 2011-06-08 2011-07-16 2011-08-03 2011-08-06 2011-09-03 2011-10-19 2011-10-22 2011-10-26 2011-10-29 2011-12-03 2012-03-21 2012-05-05 2012-05-09 2012-05-12 2012-05-26 2012-07-04 2012-07-07 2012-08-08 2012-09-19 2012-10-13 2013-01-16 2013-01-23 2013-01-26 2013-02-27 2013-05-01 2013-05-04 2013-05-11 2013-05-25 2013-06-12 2013-08-21 2013-10-02 2013-10-12 2013-12-07 2014-01-18 2014-01-22 2014-01-29 2014-02-12 2014-02-15 2014-02-22 2014-03-26 2014-03-29 2014-05-24 2014-06-18 2014-08-09 2014-08-13 2014-08-20 2014-09-06 2014-10-01 2014-10-11 2014-12-10 2014-12-20 2014-12-24 2015-01-03 2015-01-28 2015-02-11 2015-03-07 2015-03-11 2015-03-18 2015-04-15 2015-05-23 2015-06-10 2015-07-08 2015-08-12 2015-08-26 2015-09-09 2010-01-02 2015-10-03
1 draws: 16 times 2 draws: 8 times 3 draws: 6 times 4 draws: 8 times 5 draws: 4 times 6 draws: 0 times 7 draws: 6 times 8 draws: 5 times 9 draws: 5 times 10 draws: 6 times 11 draws: 4 times 12 draws: 3 times 13 draws: 3 times 14 draws: 0 times 15 draws: 1 time 16 draws: 2 times 17 draws: 1 time 18 draws: 1 time 19 draws: 0 times 20 draws: 2 times 21 draws: 0 times 22 draws: 0 times 23 draws: 0 times 24 draws: 0 times 25 draws: 0 times 26 draws: 0 times 27 draws: 1 time 28 draws: 0 times 29 draws: 0 times 30 draws: 0 times 31 draws: 1 time 32 draws: 0 times its own waits draws between appearances Where it lands in a sorted draw Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
1st smallest 3 · chance 3.3 2nd smallest 22 · chance 16.4 3rd smallest 23 · chance 29.7 4th smallest 27 · chance 24.3 5th smallest 8 · chance 9.0 6th smallest 1 · chance 1.2 Every position’s lane →
The company it keeps Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 9.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22 The model and its sources → · What people believe about 21 →
Every draw it appeared in ← number 20 Every number number 22 → What this cannot tell you Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.