In Lotto under the 6/45 + 1/45 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2015 rules — 601 draws, 6 from 1–45 (an earlier era).
74times drawn · chance expected 80 −0.74σ
0draws waiting — it came up last time
8.2average wait between appearances · chance says 7.5
33longest completed wait · 53% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 74 times in 601 draws against 80.1 expected, −0.74σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 14 times, counted separately.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 74 times in 601 draws · average wait 8.2 draws · longest completed wait 33 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.